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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (62972)7/28/2002 3:51:41 PM
From: SusieQ1065  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 208838
 
yah...that was such a good program that you used on CSCO..

and it does prompt this one thought..

that if there was ever a glimmer of hope that
Tech could eventually bottom and make a sustainable
comeback...

then perhaps we might be getting close to a time when
some of these stocks would be worth "investing" in..and
using the Covered Call strategy to reduce cost~basis
until we got out of the woods...

well..."close" being a relative term...the "real" bottom
might be a year or so away, huh?



To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (62972)7/28/2002 3:53:42 PM
From: t2  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 208838
 
Jorj, While you are on the subject of Cisco.

What do you see happening going into earnings on this stock?

In May, the last earnings report, it fueled a huge short term rally after the report. Could it happen before earnings this time?
As of a couple of weeks ago, some analyst was talking about how all their checks suggested Cisco is having a strong quarter...they saw no weakness in their business. That goes against what most other tech companies were seeing in that time.

Maybe it is just the fact that they have little competition away from telecommunications area?

However, this time around, I can't image their guidance and projected growth rates to be "bullish"...even if the current quarter went well.

...so resulting in a Naz rally for a couple of days ahead of earnings and then a sell on the news. Earnings out August 6.



To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (62972)7/28/2002 3:56:27 PM
From: SusieQ1065  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 208838
 
oh...you have company on your CYMI short...PremierInvestor
featured it Friday as a new short play...(i think
they get their ideas from you...;-)

their target to cover is $22ish...

New Play - Tech Stocks Friday, July 26, 2002

Short (Bearish) Play

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cymer Inc. - CYMI
close: 27.55 change: -0.52 stop: 30.01

Company Description:
Cymer, Inc. is the world's leading supplier of excimer laser illumination sources, the essential light source for deep ultraviolet (DUV) photolithography systems. DUV lithography is a key enabling technology, which has allowed the semiconductor industry to meet the exacting specifications and manufacturing requirements for volume production of today's advanced semiconductor chips. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
To say that the chip sector has seen better days is a huge understatement. Lately the semiconductor group is like a leaden weight on the NASDAQ, keeping the Composite from posting any sort of meaningful gain. The semiconductor index (SOX.X) hit a new multi-year low of 304.45 today after breaking key support at 345 earlier in the week. Goldman Sachs did their best to prop up the sector with an upgrade of several chip manufacturers, but investors seemed to be almost oblivious to the news. As you can see from the above company description, CYMI plays a part in the chip manufacturing process. With sector leaders AMAT and KLAC both falling to multi-month lows this week, we think CYMI will soon follow suit. The stock is in the midst of a prolonged downtrend (shares have nearly lost half their value since mid-May) and is in danger of setting new multi-month lows. The downtrend has been defined by a descending channel. By shorting the stock now, we hope to capture a move to our official profit-target of $22.51, near the bottom of the channel. Bulls can argue that psychological support at $25.00 will prevent a large decline, but we don't anticipate anything more than a small bounce from this level. The current bearishness in the chip sector is simply too overwhelming, and it'll probably become more pronounced if the SOX.X breaks under 300. Although we're willing to short CYMI at current levels, conservative traders may want to hold off on short positions until CYMI actually moves below the $27.00 or $26.50 levels. Our initial stop is set at $30.01, just above psychological resistance. Those who are more risk-averse could use a stop slightly above today's high of $29.16.

Picked on July 26th at $27.55
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date 07/22/02 (confirmed)