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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (21804)	7/28/2002 6:37:18 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Actual revenues Financial Year 2001 $2.7bn 2000 $3.2bn 1999 $3.9bn 1998 $3.3bn 1997 $2.1bn As you say, that's not much of a revenue growth picture. Yet we see growth in subscribers like this cdg.org [which is not bad considering the economic mayhem discussed in this stream and elsewhere - see Intel's sales for example]. Subscriber growth has stabilized to a linear rate since June 1999, from 30 million in June 1999 to 120 million in June 2002. That's not a bad growth rate and many businesses would be glad of it. Notice that it has carried on right through the economic woes of the past 2 years. Looking behind the numbers, they have sold the infrastructure division [which Ericy bought] and the handset division, which Kyocera bought, and Globalstar revenues stopped coming as development was completed. So it's not really surprising to see revenue drop. But the handset and infrastructure revenues were low margin [with losses]. It's better to sell $1 billion with huge margins than $10 billion with none. P:E is an absurd number because they lost a bundle on Vesper, Pegaso, Globalstar and NetZero malinvestment. Hopefully, with the telecosmic and cyberspace frenzies over, we'll be back to more normal business development with actual profits. Having the foundations of demand for CDMA is a good place to start. Stock option mania is easing and we're back to normal earnings for employees after the 1990s stock option frenzy. Stock options are still a reasonable way to pay people. Not everyone has a cellphone and almost nobody has a cyberspace phone [outside Korea and Japan]. Those who do like to replace them every year or three to get the latest and greatest. There's a lot of wear and tear on phones. Their life is not 10 years. Only 120 million people have a CDMA phone and there are 6 billion people. They all want one. So, there are going to be about 3 billion CDMA phones sold over the next decade or so, with replacement providing an ongoing demand. So, there are your answers. Now that you can see the amazing and incredible success of CDMA, rush out now and buy yourself a phone and some stock! The shares are at el cheapo prices right now. Mqurice