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Strategies & Market Trends : Effective Trading In Our Markets. Learn, then Earn -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1159)	7/28/2002 5:29:42 PM
From: Sharck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1854

Great Day on Friday Jerry, we should have open house more often. Seems the big boys still up to their old shenanigans: Trust Shattered, Wall Street Can't Afford Coincidences By GRETCHEN MORGENSON Wall Street analysts are definitely under the microscope these days. Which makes a sequence of events of last Thursday and Friday involving Goldman Sachs' semiconductor stock analyst very intriguing. Semiconductor stocks were crushed on Thursday when the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announced that it was sharply cutting its capital expenditures because of nonexistent demand for chips. Investors in chip stocks ran for the exits, correctly assuming that if such a big maker in Taiwan saw no demand, neither would the rest of the producers. Shares of big-name United States producers like Intel and Applied Materials sank on the news. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index — known affectionately as the Sox — tumbled. And the action took down the Nasdaq as well. Although the Sox closed down 10 percent on Thursday, the index had been far lower earlier in the day; it recovered on significant buying. One especially large trade in the afternoon came from Goldman Sachs: the purchase of 10,000 call options on an exchanged-traded fund — called Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust — that is a basket of large semiconductor stocks. The options are traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange, and an order to buy 10,000 is unusually large. The open interest on these options — similar to the freely trading shares, or float, on a common stock — was around 1,400 before the order came in. Any investor buying call options is betting that the stock underlying them is going to rise significantly. Given the excessive volatility in the market as a whole and the wide swings characteristic of semiconductor stocks in particular, it would take a person of great confidence to make such a trade. Now for the intriguing part. On Friday morning, two hours before the market opened, James Covello, the semiconductor analyst at Goldman, upgraded the semiconductor equipment sector to overweight from market weight. Mr. Covello's reasoning? The big selloff in the sector was overdone. "While fundamentals are not likely to improve in the near term, we believe that funds flow and seasonality may drive a meaningful move in the stock," he wrote. Mr. Covello added that his call on the group would be appropriate for shorter-term investors "who can be nimble enough to take advantage of a funds flow-driven rally and/or seasonality in the electronics supply chain." In other words, his recommendation was a trading buy. When asked about these events, Katherine Baum, a spokeswoman at Goldman Sachs, said: "There is absolutely no connection between any of Goldman Sachs' trading activities and its investment research. And given the current environment it's outrageous to suggest that there is." She added that Goldman has strict guidelines on how much an analyst can communicate around an upgrade or downgrade. She declined to comment on whether the purchase was made by the firm for one of its customers or for the firm's own trading book. Maybe it was just a giant coincidence that a Goldman Sachs trader put in an order to buy almost seven times the open interest in call options on the Semiconductor HOLDRs half a day before the firm advised its clients to buy into the sector. Although the shares in the exchange-traded fund closed on Friday roughly where they had wound up the previous day, they rose 3 percent early in the day as news of Goldman's upgrade spread. It is unclear whether the call options were sold. In life, things happen by accident and they happen by design. It is not always possible to know which force is at work in each situation. But this much is known: Wall Street firms thrived during the late 1990's in part because investors were willing to suspend their disbelief. Those days are over. And Wall Street firms had better get used to the scrutiny.

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1159)	7/29/2002 7:09:23 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1854

HERE'S MY LAST WEEKS NEWSLETTER...DID I CALL A BOTTOM?<G> $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED JULY 21ST 2002 CAP-PUKE-U-LA-SHUN Whoa there folks, is this it?..Biggest day for volume on the big board, and down hard for the whole week..in fact the whole month...Capitulation seems like it happened, just the way we envisioned it would...i thought it happened last week..no ceegar there...and never did get a chance to go heavily long..but still think that way..i have seen this before and traded it like a pro... Well my cyberfriends, I hope all is well with you and yours...and especially with your families and friends in this treacherous market... It never ceases to amaze me how things get so overblown, out of proportion to the up side or the downside..right?..They either are buying this market with both fists or selling it the very same way..ya gotta laugh, even though it's not too funny for those folks sitting there like deer in the headlights doing nothing...Or still worse are ruined for the rest of their lives...I set that blame squarely on the shoulders of ALL stock brokers and Financial Advisors..They failed the American public miserably and have not come forward to admit it...No they just keep on lying and hedging...Jail is TOO GOOD for them..Make em' pay all the lost money back...hurt THEM where THEY hurt America...right in their pocketbooks.. As for the liar scum bag CEO's, jail and pay backs out of THEIR compensations should be the order of the day..Make then give back every damn cent to the shareholders of their company stock in the 401K's...EVERY DAMN CENT...it pisses me off that those politicians just are not tough enough and never have been for John Q Public...Anyway we'll see what our fearless leaders can bring to the table to heal all of those that suffered for so long now at the hands of the criminals in the Corporations and on Wall Street... Ok so where are we headed now...I think we're a lot overdone, and we'll have a solid technical bounce next week and beyond...It won't be too much on the upside but valuations are compelling here, and the street is very very bearish here..Exactly the way I like it..Couldn't be a better scenario right now...I want you all to understand that any rally up here is still a short all rally bounce for now...Understand this much, as we head toward the anniversary of 9-11 the markets will selloff and pullback for fear of another planned attack...That's obvious...and of course we'll await that outcome with baited breath...I am not standing in the way of that potential debacle...better late than never...we can always invest.. It may come to pass that the suggested Macro Cycle lows of Oct could be the exact same set up as last Sept...those were in fact the lows of the year and we rallied up like a frightened mouse<g>...It could all work out that way again..While I'm not speculating here, just trying to think a bit ahead for us...So where do we place our money now? Glad you asked<vbg>...Bio Techs and of course Semis...I actually for the first time ever like the bio's better than the semis...There chart patterns and indicators are all turning positive while everything is cascading down here..a solid divergence in my thinking here...So let's get on with everything we need to know to make some coinage in the coming week or so... HERE'S ALL THE INDEXES WE LOVE AND FOLLOW...CARNAGE WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME EXCEPT FOR THE NAZI/COMP...AND THE SOX... DJIA---FINALLY CAUGHT UP WITH ALL THE OTHER INDEXES AND SOLD OFF BIG TIME...FROM THE MAY TOP AT 10,350 WE ARE DOWN 2350 POINTS...SOME PLUNGE HUH?...IT'S ACTUALLY BEEN VERY ORDERLY IF YOU CHECK THE DAILY CHART...1ST LET'S SEE IF IT CAN RALLY UP TO THE TOP OF THIS MAJOR BEARISH BAR AT 8400...THE ACTUAL 20 EMA DAILY IS AT 8875 AND FALLING...AN IMPORTANT FACTOR HERE ARE ALL THE NYSE P&F INDICATORS...THE % ABOVE 10 WEEK IS AT 12%, THE HI-LO INDEX AT 22.94% IS NEARING HISTORICAL LOWS 20% IN 2000 12% IN 2001...THE BIG BOY BP IS THE NYSEBP AND IT'S RIGHT AT SUPPORT HERE AT 34%...IT WOULD TAKE A 6% MOVE UP TO 40 TO REVERSE THIS INDEX...AND THE OFFENSE WOULD COME ON THE FIELD BIG TIME...GET READY FOR IT...BTW FWIW..THE ENTIRE SECTOR BP'S THAT WERE AT 65% AND 100% OVERBOUGHT, ARE NOW AT 32% AND ALMOST 100% OVERSOLD... NAZ/COMPX---THIS INDEX IS HOLDING BEST OF ALL RIGHT NOW..MEANING WE ARE SOLD OUT...WE COULD SEE 1250 IF WE BREAK 1300, THAT WOULD BE EASY AND THEN WE'D BE ALL DONE...THE OTC BP WHICH BOTTOMS AT 22-24% IS SITTING RIGHT HERE AT 28.90 % SO FAR...AND THE OPTIONAL STOCK'S BP..THE WHOLE UNIVERSE OF THOSE TYPES OF NYSE & OTC STOCKS THAT ARE OPTIONAL ARE NEARING SOLID BOUNCE LEVELS...AT 24%... NOW THESE BP'S ARE JUST GUIDE LINES FOR THE FUTURE..WHEN THEY BEGIN TO TURN UP WE ARE GOING TO RALLY HERE FOLKS...TRUST ME<G>...NOW I DID SAY WHEN? RIGHT?...THEY HAVE "NOT" DONE SO YET... SOX---WE HAVE HELD THAT 360 LEVEL THRU THIS ENTIRE SELLOFF..VERY VERY POSITIVE EVEN THO THE SEMIS CHARTS LOOK LIKE CRAPOLA..ON LAST FRIDAYS DEBACLE..THE SOX WAS DOWN A WHOLE 4.62..NOT BAD...THE RS(RELATIVE STRENGTH) VS THE SPX HAS REVERSED UP HERE, AND SO HAS THE BP(BULLISH PERCENT) FROM A PERFECT TOUCH AT 12% TO NOW STANDING AT 23%...410 IS STILL THE BREAKOUT THERE, 340 IS NOT VERY NICE EVERYONE... SMH---IF WE TANK MONDAY INTO TUES, I HAVE TALKED ABOUT USING THIS INDEX BEFORE AS A SWING TRADE...GEE WHIZ..IT'S HARD TO DO A SWING..BUT WE'LL TRY IT ONE MORE TIME LONG HERE...I'M GOING TO BUY IT WITH A STOP OF 26 1/2 A TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN, IT WOULD MEAN THE SOX INDEX BROKE 340 LEVEL TOO I'D BET...I STILL LIKE THIS RISK REWARD EVEN THO I'VE BEEN STOPPED OUT TWICE NOW..BOTH FOR LOSSES... BTK---RIGHT NOW THIS INDEX IS SHOWING SOME STRENGTH...THE RS VS THE SPX REVERSED UP HERE THIS IS POSITIVE...THIS RS WAS IN A PROTRACTED DOWN TREND FROM JAN TILL NOW..I LIKE THIS PICTURE..THE BP FOR BIO TECHS FELL ALL THE WAY FROM 60% DOWN TO 10% AND HAS REVERSED UP TOO...WE NEED 350 FOR THE INDEX TO KEEP MOVING, AND 310 WOULD BE ANOTHER BAD BREAK... BBH---I OWN THIS ONE AT 70.87 BOUGHT IT ON FRIDAY IN ALL THE CARNAGE...IT HAD A NICE BOTTOM FISH BUY SIGNAL ON P&F AND HAS PULLED BACK NOW ON THE CHART...MY CURRENT STOP IS 67...73 REVERSES IT UP 3BOXES...76 THE NEW BREAKOUT BUY..PLEASE SET ALERTS FIRST FOR 73, THEN 76... NDX---MUST HOLD HERE AT 950...940 IS ANOTHER BAD BREAK...990 THE 3 BOX UP..THE NDX BP REVERSED UP TOO...HEY ALL THESE BP'S COULD REVERSE BACK DOWN IF THE MARKET CONTINUES TO SELLOFF... VIX---WHAT A CHART, I'VE SAID THIS BEFORE AND I'LL SAY IT AGAIN...IF IT WAS A STOCK CHART WE'D ALL OWN IT<G>..DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE NEAR TERM...44 BREAKS IT OUT AGAIN...38 IS THE FIRST SIGN OF WEAKNESS.. VXN--COMPLETELY IN THE OPPOSITE CAMP HERE...NAZ HOLDING WELL DOW NOT DOING WELL...WATCH 63 FIRST...A REVERSAL BACK UP NEGATIVE FOR THE NAZ..SET ALERTS FOR THAT.. SPX---CONTINUES TO SELLOFF CASCADING LOWER AND LOWER...IT WOULD TAKE A MOVE TO 930 TO GET A BUY SIGNAL ON THIS CHART....SPXBP AT A MAJOR DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 18% IT WOULD TAKE 24% TOP REVERSE IT BACK UP...16% IS YET ANOTHER BREAKDOWN ON THE BP CHART...BTW..THIS INDEX IS ALMOST 90 POINTS BELOW IT'S TARGETED DOWNSIDE NUMBER PRICE OBJECTIVE... OK MY FINE TRADING FRIENDS LET'S DO THE STOCKS WE KNOW AND LOVE...BTW..AS WE CASCADED DOWN LOWER AND LOWER..YOU SHOULD HAVE TAKEN THOSE SS TRIGGERS AND EVEN HELD THEM AS THEY RE TRIGGERED BREAKING THOSE P&F CONTINUATION SELL SIGNALS..THOSE WERE SWING SHORTS...PLEASE REMEMBER THAT AGAIN IF WE BEGIN TO RALLY HERE...WE HAVE SHORT TERM TRIGGERS AND CONTINUATION TRIGGERS WHICH MEANS YOU STAY IN THE TRADE USING TRAILING STOPS... IDPH---I AM LONG THIS STOCK AT 38.91...JUST PULLED BACK TO THE RISING 20 & 40 EMAS DAILY CANDLE CHART...I WILL BUY THIS DOWN TO 37 OR SO..IT'S A FABULOUS CHART PATTERN SO FAR...JUST REVERSED DOWN 3 BOXES..39.65 THE BTL(BUY TRIGGER LONG)...37.90 THE SST(SHORT SALE TRIGGER)...THE RS ON THIS STOCK JUST REVERSED UP..SOLID... CEPH---MY NEXT PLANNED BUY...THIS STOCK BROKE A TRIPLE TOP HIT THE BRL LINE..THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE AND SOLD OFF 4 BOXES..TYPICAL RIGHT?...WE COULD SEE 40 THE BSL..BUT I'LL WATCH IT MANYANA...43.60 THE BTL...41.75 THE SST... BRCD---CLASSIC DAILY CANDLE CHART OF A STOCK IN AN UPTREND...3 PERFECT DAYS OF A PULLBACK TO THE 20 EMA...THIS STOCK RALLIED FROM 15 RIGHT TO 21 THE TRIPLE TOP AND SOLD OFF...HERE IT IS SITTING NICELY..I'LL BUY THIS STOCK...19.25 THE BTL...20 REVERSES IT UP 3BX...22 AN ENORMOUS BREAKOUT...17.90 THE SST... BRCM---I LIKE THIS ONE TOO..RS REV UP HERE AS DID BRCD'S TOO...HOLDING THE 20 EMA DAILY FOR NOW AND JUST PULLED BACK ON P&F...20.50 THE BTL...18.75 THE SST...WAIT FOR IT... BTW WHEN RS REVERSE BACK UP ON THE STOCKS CHART..IT;S VERY POSITIVE BECAUSE THEY DON;T MOVE THAT FAST AND USUALLY LAST A LONG TIME...MOVING IN ONE DIRECTION.. EBAY---DAMN IT..I'M TALKING ABOUT EBAY GOING INTO THE S&P 500 INDEX WATCHING IT TRADE LIKE A DOG WITH FLEAS THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN BANG! UP IT GOES ON FRIDAY LIKE A ROCKETSHIP...MISSED IT FOLKS<g>. OBVIOUSLY A LARGE HAMMER ON FRIDAY..WILL IT CONTINUE?...60.50 THE BTL...58.50 THE SST.. EXPE---A WILD TRADING STOCK, NOT FOR BEGINNERS...NEWBIES STAND ASIDE...RIGHT NOW AN INVERTED HAMMER AND DOUBLE BOTTOM ON P&F...56.50 THE BTL...54.90 THE GOOD SST...TEST 52 AGAIN.. GILD---BROKE THRU THE HARD R AT THE BRL LINE LAST WEEK..HAS PULLED BACK TO THE 20 EMA HERE ON CONTRACTING VOLUME..A NICE BIO TECH PLAY...32.70 THE BTL...AND A GOOD ONE..30.95 THE SST.. INTU--FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE MARKETS CRASH...IT LOOKS WEAK HERE...BROKE A NICE LOOKING RISING WEDGE TO BOOT...42.50 THE BTL...40.25 THE SST... KLAC---GOSH I MADE A LOT OF MONEY THESE PAST 3-4 WEEKS TRADING THIS FABULOUS STOCK BOTH LONG AND SHORT IN THE ROOM...THE P&F CHART IS SHAPING UP NICELY HERE...3 HIGHER HIGHS...A GOOD DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 40 AND NOW?...43.80 THE BTL...MUST TAKE OUT FRIDAYS HOD...41.90 THE SST...ANY PRINT OF 39 YOU STAY SHORT... MSFT---RIGHT AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE HERE..LIKE I SAID LAST WEEK, THIS STOCK HOLDS A LOT OF WEIGHT WITH BOTH THE NYSE AND NAZ...50.50 THE BTL...51 A MUST FOR THE FOLLOW THRU LONG...48.50 THE SST WITH ANY BREAK OF 48 A SERIOUS SHORT FOLLOW THRU TRADE...A BIG TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN... A BIG TIME NEGATIVE... NVDA---DOJI'S EVERYWHERE ON THE DAILY CHART..NEGATORY...18.90 THE BTL...MUST REVERSE UP HERE TO 19 1/2 ANS FAST...17.50 THE SST...AND DOUBLE BOTTOM BREAK AS WELL... PDLI---A BUNCH OF SPINNING TOPS OUT THERE ON THE DAILY...SITTING ON 2 TIME FRAMES AT THE 20 & 40 EMA'S...THIS IS A TRUE BOTTOM FISH PLAY AFTER BREAKING OUT OF A TRIPLE TOP...PULLED BACK HERE AND WILL IT RALLY???....12.50 THE BTL...13.50 HEAVY R..WITH 14 A MAJOR LEAGUE BREAKOUT BUY THERE..I LOVE THIS CHART...11.10 THE SST...RS REV UP HERE... QCOM---THE RS REV'D UP HERE TOO?...MANY STOCKS STARTING TO SHOW THEIR RS BEGINNING TO REV UP..THIS IS A "BIG" POSITIVE...FOR THE WHOLE MARKET...31.00 THE BTL...HEADING TO 34 THE DT...29.25 THE SST... QLGC---DAMN IT I GOT MY ASS HANDED TO ME ON FRIDAY TRYING TO LONG THIS STOCK A FEW TIMES..I LOVE THE CHART ON THE STOCK, IT'S EARNINGS ETC...IT WILL BE A CORE STOCK ON ANY RALLY UP IN A POSITION TYPE TRADE...SO IT BREAKSOUT AT 40 HITS 44 AND JUST NOW REVERSES BACK DOWN...3 SOLID DAYS OF RETREATING ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART THE PERFECT PULLBACK...41.70 THE BTL...39.50 THE SST... ESST---IT'S NOW OR NEVER FOR THIS ONE...RIGHT AT THE BRINK HERE AT 16ISH....16.80 THE BTL...15.50 THE SST... VSEA---WHAT A TRADER LONG AND SHORT..EARNINGS THIS WEEK...SIDEWAYS BASE HERE TOO...BUT AT THE LOWER END...32.90 THE BTL...30.90 THE SST.. HGSI---MADE A BOLD BREAKOUT AT 13 AS A BOTTOM FISH TYPE PLAY...RAN TO 15 1/2...REVERSED BACK DOWN NICELY..WE USED TO TRADE THIS A LOT..WAAAAAY BAAACK WHEN<G>...THE PULLBACK WAS ON CONTRACTING VOLUME...15 THE BTL...14 THE SST... IBM--I'VE BEEN INCLUDING THIS ONE FOR OBVIOUS REASONS..IT TRADES GREAT...BOTTOMED AT 67..AND IS NOW IN A SIDEWAYS TRADING RANGE SO FAR..HAD HARD R AT 73/74 SO FAR...73 THE BTL...69.90 THE SST.. MU---BEAUTIFUL CHART SO FAR...23 THE BTL...25 HARD R WITH 26 A BIG TIME BREAK OUT THERE...21.50 THE SST... INTC---LOUSY REPORT...DARK CLOUD COVER WITH A DOJI TO BOOT THE LAST TWO DAYS...19.25 THE BTL WITH ANY BREAK OF 20 A SOLID BUY SIGNAL ON P&F THERE..17.90 THE SST... OK MY TRADING BUDDIES, MONDAY IS SETTING UP FOR A WILD DAY...IF WE TANK EARLY I AM GOING LONG HARD INTRADAY LOOKING FOR A SPECTACULAR BOUNCE... TRADE SMART, GET TO CASH EACH NIGHT TILL WE HIT THE RALLY... WARMEST REGARDS JERRY Jerry Olson MasterClassTraders.com www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com