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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jcky who wrote (35179)	7/28/2002 5:34:28 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

jcky, By definition all problems have to be solved from where they are at this moment, but if a problem only exists because of certain actors, it's fair to notice it, and the fact that the fate of the Palestinian refugee population is unique among the 100 million refugees created in the 20th century. Here are the political realities: neither Israel nor any of the surrounding Arab states are going to accept any more Palestinian refugees. To believe so would be cloud-cuckooish With the Arab states, it's not a question of accepting more refugees, but of ending their apartheid policies for the ones they've already got. The refugees in Lebanon have neithr work permits nor citizenship, for instance. I think we stay with the status quo until after the US goes into Iraq. Maybe the US will be able to replace the Palestinian leadership by then, maybe not. We will really have to see where we are then. Meantime suicide bombings may or may not continue. In my opinion, they have been returning negative returns to the Palestinians, polically speaking, and the satisfaction of hurting Israelis alone may not be enough to sustain the campaign indefinitely. You speak as if a certain level of oppression alone were enough to guarantee continued revolt, but a glance at history does not back this idea up. You need motive, continued ability (the other guy's campaign can't be too effective), and hope of victory, or to have your backs really against the wall (e.g. the enemy will kill everybody if you lose. Not the case here). Motive alone won't do it. As for options, if the Iraq campaign goes well, the US may convene another Madrid type conference. Jordan, who clearly seems to be backing the US this time, will have a large say in the West Bank arrangements, as it should. The Israelis will also have a say. In such a case, Palestinian leverage would be limited.