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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (4303)	7/28/2002 9:48:04 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 30712

Eugene, you have a valid point, and it is one that I also have considered. The problem is there is some major unfinished business on the Dow, SPX, and to a lesser degree, the COMP. Part of the bottoming process after a bubble involves killing all optimism in the market. As we've seen, bulls are difficult to slay. I think we will need to have a period of time where there is slight hope and optimism that we've reached bottom, and then that hope has to be crushed. That's where the bottom at 1000 may come in after a run to 1250 COMP. That 1000 is where hope will spring eternal, as it could be a double bottom. However, a re-test of that double bottom could be the straw that breaks the bulls back. There are too many analysts and financial advisors telling people to hold and to buy. That needs to be changed. I don't think we will see that happen at COMP 1000. We're only 200-points from there, and we've still got everyone charged that this is a good place to buy for the long haul. We need to burn optimism at the stake, and that will only happen with a crushing drop to an impossible low. We need to have a bottom that will scare individuals out of stocks for a decade. Anyway, I think we need to open ourselves up to the fact that this is an event that only happens every 70-years, and as such is very difficult to pigeonhole into a normal market environment. Cycles also make April/May 2003 a good time for another low. Also, the end of the double dip recession in late 2003/early 2004 would make April/May a better time for the end of the bear. The end of 2002 is too early to end discounting a recession that will only have confirmation of a beginning most likely 3-4 months later.