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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (21811)	7/28/2002 7:37:31 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

<Technology development is easy.> Well, I don't think that's quite right. If it was all that easy, we'd have had the technological revolution 100 years ago. Inventing CDMA wasn't simple by any stretch of the imagination. Almost nobody could do it. Still, almost nobody understands that relativity stuff. <Social mutation takes time. Resistance is futile. As a matter of fact, I sense in the economic bears a wish to return to a simpler time before all this ridiculous technology divert us from the important things in life.> Very true. It takes the young generation to do the job. We old fogies go out without adopting to any significant extent the new stuff. Even if we try, it's hard work. Watch the youngsters with cyberspace cellphones. It's a sociological phenomenon. It's a crazy frenzy. Oldies use cellphones, but we still think of them as more of a tool than as the place in which we live. Take away a youngster's phone and they become psychotic, like a sensory-deprived solitary prisoner. Many people continue to resist and they do think that the dot.com and telecosmic stuff was all a big mistake, a passing fad like the hula hoop, and it's back to the past. But as you say, it's not! The Luddite bears had better be careful what they short. The Aztecs hold their gold cross aloft and chant incantations to hold back the tide and cause the abandonment of Uncle Al's dollar. But the wily old fox is managing to hold his own. Mqurice

To: paul_philp who wrote (21811)	7/29/2002 1:05:59 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Paul, speak of the devil... the technological revolution continues including massive inflows of capital nytimes.com <...Venture capital investments, to be sure, are less than in the boom times of 2000. But the financing spigot is far from shut off. In the first two quarters of this year, venture investments — mostly in information technology start-ups — were running at a quarterly rate of about $6 billion, according to VentureWire Research, which tracks venture capital. That level is way below the peak of $27.4 billion invested in the second quarter of 2000. But the recent rate is also 40 percent higher than at any time before the second quarter of 1999, going back more than a decade.... > Mqurice