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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (52348)	7/28/2002 11:42:12 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, I was simpy do the arithmetic. 8M, 11M, 15M is almost 100% growth in 6 months. I would like to know who is buying these chips, the end product mix and the types of uses of these devices. My guess is that end user cell phone market growth is like a fasion industry with network effects. Once there is a viable product ('crossing the chasm') the task is to make the new phones fasionable. Once they are in fashion, the connected nature of the product leads to a very rapid acceptance. I suspect this is very geographic/demographic driven (teenagers in tokyo, executives in NY/CA). This is my working model. So, when I see big growth in unit numbers I am curious if there are not some wildfires in the market somewhere - a local tornado if you will. If this is the case it would provide at least a framework for understanding future 1X adoption. Paul