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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (47947)	7/29/2002 12:26:31 AM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Alright, MM. . . good to see someone coming on board my IT bottom (particularly in non-tech) way of thinking. <g> Mind you, this IT bottom is held up by wackligen legs, but I still think it bears some watching. As MM points out again, the VIX, should it continue its reversal, is giving a historically reliable reading. "Doesn't work in bear markets!" I hear you cry. But Sept of last year was part of this same bear market, and it worked then. The VIX chart from Sept 21 and beyond compared to the current VIX chart from the Wednesday spike is a pretty damn close match. If one were simply looking at a random chart, you'd call it a double top and EXPECT the reversal to hold. (And obviously, should we challenge 57 again, Allan would say "triple bottoms don't hold" and we'd all likely agree. But it hasn't yet.) I would also point out some similarities on the Dow chart between Sept and now: two weeks in a row with price action below the BIG downchannel (as pointed out here before) with the second week reversing back to close WITHIN the channel. I admit there's no reason to think we get a repeat of last year. This decline is different and not caused by one specific extraordinary event. That said, not paying attention to the similarities makes no sense to me. And hey, if I've got no credibility, I remind everyone of Tommy Bear's post. If his totally unemotional, just the facts, predicting way in advance reading holds accurate, we now rally for 6 months. Just for fun, I reviewed posts on SI from Sept 22 to early October last year (this and other boards). I read a lot of the same things I see on SI now: bears looking for more down, bulls seeing more up. The bulls now are more cautious. The bears now are mostly more confident than then. There is way less taunting all around now. The similarities all seem a little "neat" I admit. . . but any parallels now make it seem more likely to me that the rally we get here is just a calm before a storm. Two more things, if anyone cares. I am NOT saying this is the bear market low (and again, tech might very well set a new low and ASAP). Also, I am not positioned for a huge and sustained rally here, so it's not like I am 100% sold on my own IT non-tech take. But I think it's got more merit than it's being given. Time and price will prove the point, though. the freep