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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (47951)	7/29/2002 12:42:35 AM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

AJ -- as I've said before, I can make a fine case for more down, too. Big whoop. Everyone here can <g> Nominal vix numbers are not useless, in my book. In fact: tell me why we reversed at VIX 57 in September 2001. It's just a number. Yes, it's a negative divergence that the OEX had to drop substantially more this go round to get the VIX to match September.But dear me. . . this board was agog when BULLS were saying "the VIX doesn't matter anymore!" as it descended to 20 after the September spike up. 20 is just some nominal value. . . that happens to have had historical significance in the past. Tell me why the 20 level seems to matter in all sorts of different rally situations. Has the context been the same EACH time? The VXN's divergence is a valid point. And the immediate return to call buying is troublesome to my IT low thoughts. As AA said, we might see tech break to new lows with non-tech merely doing a scary retrace. Since I don't think this is THE bottom, it therefore doesn't have to be a "perfect" bottom in my book (as if I could define that anyway, but in one measure that would be the whole market declining to new lows simultaneously (kinda like last Wednesday)). And, frankly, it's even still possible that tech did hit an IT low. (Possible, I said, without putting any probability on it!) I know we'll both let price be our guide here. . . but I will NOT ignore the more bullish possibilities (which also have bearish endings, mind you). the freep