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To: D.B. Cooper who wrote (8446)	8/1/2002 12:01:16 AM
From: D.B. Cooper	Respond to of 13815

read and heed any know this guy? Good Luck Wave Signals Commentary By Mike Drakulich 7-30-02 IS AT LEAST A MAJOR BEAR LOW IN? Forget trying to predict whether the bear market is over and last weeks low was "THE LOW". That is immaterial to me. The key now is to determine if it is likely perhaps the most important low for now of this 2 1/2 year Bear market. I think there is a very good chance it is. It is hard for me to find anything negative about yesterdays "power rally" resulting in the second 440 point plus rally in the past 4 trading days. And what I mean about "power move" is the about 11 to 1 ratio of up/down volume, combined with the better than 4 to 1 A/D line, this is classic "3rd wave" action and we have already generated very impressive upside momentum only 4 days off the low, as the rally was easily even better than the initial 4-day rally off the Sep 21 low of last year which was less than 700 points in 4 days. This tells us in my opinion(IMO) that the "odds" are very good for further upside, and any short term declines at this point should be rather swift in both price and time. Also remember, given the extent of the rally, 100-200 Dow points is "small potatoes". Just heard on CNBC that the past 4 days have seen the largest percentage gain since 1933(assuming Dow), and there is a ton of doubt I'm hearing out there, most people seem to want to look for places to go short, not look for places to buy. More fuel IMO for good further upside action! The chart of the Naz 100 McOsi and its Summation index is one seen by subscribers many times in recent weeks. It shows the "divergences" both basis the daily McOsi and bigger picture Summation index, not only against price lows over the past several weeks, but as measured against last years Sep lows. This IMO is a classic big picture "momentum coil" which are seen at least at intermediate term, if not a longer term bottoms. I think at the least this indicates perhaps the biggest Bear Market bottom in the Naz 100 of this roughly 2 1/2 year bear market, therefore the greatest "potential percentage" rally we've yet seen could be dead ahead.. There are many other indicators and gauges that support this scenario in my view. I am not screaming here that this is THE low and it is all over, no way there. Just trying to point out the potential significance of this low, and what kind of rally, even still within a bear market, that is possible and perhaps likely to be seen. Overall I do expect the greatest percentage gains to be registered by the Naz/Naz 100 if my scenario is correct, and yesterday was the first good rally day there, and if my guess that we are getting a delayed reaction there, just like that seen off the Sep lows is correct, we should now start seeing good relative strength in those sectors. I continue to view this as a "trading market", however at this time I think the best rally in terms of time and price in a long while could very well be underway. There does remain a decent possibility the S&P and Dow did complete entire bear market corrective patterns at last weeks low. However it is only a "possibility", but something to keep in mind and continue to look for supporting evidence of over the next weeks and months, "if" this rally does continue. ****************************************************************************************************************ABOUT MIKE DRAKULICH FREE TRIAL OFFER Mike Drakulich is editor of the Wave Signals Newsletter, as he has been since 1988. All major Financial markets are covered, and the service is emailed to subscribers several times a day, it is a trading service looks to position for several day to several week market moves. If you would like a 2-week FREE TRIAL just email mike at: wave@bendcable.com decisionpoint.com