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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yousef who wrote (85999)	7/29/2002 4:24:10 PM
From: Bill Jackson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Yousef, Lots of truth in what you say, but things change. The problem is AMD is smaller than intel and finds it harder to fund(both cash and mindpower) as many development areas as Intel, so they concentrate and they have done very well. Cost intek their monopoly margins, save for Xeons and now xeons will become threatened since the hammer seems to be very capable. As for performance, a lot depends on the measure. Speed has Intel ahead, performance per clock has AMD ahead.but at the same speed the AMD parts are markedly superior. Now if AMD can make the hammer as fast as the P4 and capable like the Athlon(or more so)..... Bill

To: Yousef who wrote (85999)	7/29/2002 4:35:20 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: "Yosef, Then why is Intel spinning downwards, flush style, too?" INTC is being pulled down by market in general ... INTC is undervalued because: 1) INTC is posting positive profits even in this very difficult economic environment. Yousef, INTC is hardly undervalued.....in fact its way over valued. As of Friday, the average PE for S&P large/mid caps was 15. As of today, INTC's P/E is 45. 2) INTC has the performance lead over AMD at this point and will so for the rest of the year. The markets usually look six months into the future. In six months, its anticipated that Hammer will be out and INTC will no longer have the performance lead. 3) INTC has been steadily taking market share from AMD. That's true during the current product cycle transition for AMD; however, that trend is expected to reverse upon the debut of Hammer. 4) When the economy turns around, INTC is in a better position than AMD to benefit from this and have much higher earnings per share. I will agree that when the economy rebounds, INTC will have more cash but that doesn't guarantee that Barrett will get savvy and spend it in a way that's positive for INTC.....his history would suggest otherwise. As for a much higher EPS, that's not likely. AMD is appropriately valued because: 1) Losing money now and projected to lose money well into '03. 2) Behind in performance due to either design or process issue at .13um. Not sure when this will be resolved. 3) Very dependent on UMC for schedule and yield for Barton. Also dependent for future technology generations. Could be a big disaster in the making. 4) Losing market share after struggling so long to gain some share from INTC. Did you know since 2 January, INTC's stock is down 57.2% while AMD's is down a lesser 49.7%? I think the markets may be panning your thesis. ted