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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Curbstone who wrote (52367)	7/29/2002 7:22:59 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I've been on this thread from day one and don't recall this subject ever having been explored. Actually, I think there has been a fair amount of discussion, especially as time went on and the market went down, about timing criteria for getting in and getting out, but the focus was primarily valuation, not TA. TA seems to me to come from a different universe than G&K.

To: Curbstone who wrote (52367)	7/29/2002 8:16:22 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Curbstone, I did a fair amount of research into TA. I think there are some useful applications to the LTBH investor at a very high level. Bruce Brown wrote some excellent pieces on TA and FA and LTBH over on TMF. A famous example is a post titled: Fore on the CANSLIM board. If you are interested, it is worth reading. My personal experience is that TA and FA threads don't mix well at all. There are some threads that explicitly combine TA and FA (CANSLIM) but otherwise the discussion tends to degrade quickly. The conclusion I came to about TA is that it is like a weather report. Paul

To: Curbstone who wrote (52367)	7/30/2002 4:24:19 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

re: Technical Analysis of Gorillas and Kings Aloha Curbstone, << Does anyone here think there is a place for Technical Analysis of Gorillas and Kings as a basis for entry and exit positions? >> I have always (or at least generally) relied on TA (not my own) for determining entry points for companies I have decided after sufficient DD that I want to include in my portfolio. I commented on this back in the early days of this thread when you and I dialogued about Cisco and their earnings warning in 1994 (part of the Gorilla Game case study) which is when I took my initial Cisco position, so in a sense this is repetitive on my part. I added to my Cisco holding each and every year from 1995 to 1998 at within a point or two of its annual low. As I've commented here before, as a matter of portfolio balance I allow no company to constitute more than 20% of my equities holdings at end of year. I rebalance my portfolio between Christmas and January end and I move 20% to cash at that time reinvesting on corrections and fully invest again by end of October because of the historical seasonality of Nasdaq. Cisco has constituted 20% of my equities portfolio since 1997 so essentially it has funded many of my other equity portfolio holds. In most years I've had to whack it back to 20% at year end and on several occassions have bought it back on corrections. Each time I added I chose my entry points for the add based on TA of others. I'm using Cisco as an example, but I've done the same with many of the other companies that are in my portfolio today and in general it has paid off. I have not used TA as the basis for an exit strategy, because in general I have not had an exit strategy for LTB&H positions other than the annual rebalancing and reinvestment strategy I mentioned above. When we get into the next bull I may well reconsider that. I've made some attempts to become more familiar with TA in the past but in general I rely on others that practice the art or science or whatever you call that voodoo with what appears to be some skill. While there may (or may not) be "a place for Technical Analysis of Gorillas and Kings as a basis for entry and exit positions", I don't think it is suitable to discussions of G&K portfolio candidates on this board ... so I won't mention it here again ... for a while. <g> Best, - Eric -