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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (14974)	7/29/2002 11:56:57 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78625

Bob Rudd: I'm in the same underwater position as you regarding many of these same stocks. What I figured to be decent, real companies apparently are cigar butts with their disguise now removed. Having a diversified portfolio reduces the pain a little bit. ------ With so many stocks up now from their lows of two days ago, what stocks might you guys now be looking at as buying opportunities? I'm looking again at SWY in large caps. I'm considering adding to my losing position in LENS (I like the stock price vs. cash/sh.) Other stocks that were attractive to me a few days ago, seem less attractive - possibly because they've quickly moved up a couple of points or more from where I could have bought them and didn't.

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (14974)	8/1/2002 10:44:48 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78625

DYN: Closed position today averaging ~3.40 for about a 20% loss that would have been FAR greater had I not bought some more during the recent collapse to average cost down. The initial thesis on this: That DYN inherits Enrons trading positon, has long since evaporated. CVX isn't providing any support...why wouldn't they be buyers before it got to <$1 prices if there were value? Management? Who knows? Accounting? Analysts that proclaimed it undervalued in the 20's now can't see it as a buy <1. Maybe it rebounds, but clearly I don't understand these energy businesses well enough to invest in them as the price excursions so far exceeded my expectations. The DYN bounce on Buffett's loan to Williams [probably at terms far more favorable to Buffett, than to Williams] seems a slender reed to justify the rally.

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (14974)	9/12/2002 1:53:59 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78625

TYC: Bailed today, having substantially reduced, but by no means erased lossed thru purchases at lower levels. There's plenty of negative news flow potential from the cleansing process ahead...and there's tax selling season, so I may get back in on another dive. My timing on this has pretty much sucked...so I'm probably early. The last time I tried to put an enterprise multiple on this, I couldn't figure it out well enough to do it, but today they mentioned expectations for lower earnings down to $2share giving a PE of 9. I know they got a pile of debt so enterprize multiple is well north of there. I think the new guys are top notch, but I would be amazed if they don't, at some point in the not so distant future, announce the mother of all BIG BATHS to put all the nasties [and probably some of the future operating costs] in the rear view mirror. I'm gonna hide and watch while the market reflects on this.