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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan G who wrote (21503)	7/30/2002 3:35:33 PM
From: Petrol	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26752

Risk it. <g> Think big. Expect the best.

To: Susan G who wrote (21503)	7/30/2002 3:39:36 PM
From: Sully-	Respond to of 26752

C.S. First Boston lowers estimates on ATI Technologies in notes 7/30/02 07/30/02 09:02 AM Source: CS First Boston <edit> KLA Tencor (KLAC-$38.91-Cap $7.7B-PT $50-Hold) John Pitzer Previewing June Q Results: Cat Already Out of the Bag FY02: $1.07, FY03: $1.35 * KLAC reports F4Q(Jun) results tonight after the close. At last week’s Semicon West Analyst day company reiterated F4Q guidance: revenue of $355-365 mn, $350 mn shipments and EPS of $0.18-0.20. Our estimates remain in line at $360mn, $350mn and $0.20, respectively. Bookings on track for 10%+ seq growth, and body language implies company could post 15% seq higher number – in line with our official estimate of $440 mn. * Flat bookings in F1Q(Sep). Company is guiding to flat bookings quarter in Sep Q consistent with similar guidance from LRCX (flat down 10%) and NVLS (down 10%). Sep is historically a down quarter for KLAC, 5 of the last 7 yrs; an average of -8%. Seasonally adjusted we could argue that a flat June Q is actually somewhat positive – but in the end we expect a flat-to-down bookings quarter with mask inspection business falling off after several strong Q’s. * Not immune from decelerating order rates in 2H. KLA is one of the best positioned companies in SCE with solid footing across all major chip producers (esp. foundry, DRAM), which drove a diversified order book in the Jun Q. In 2H however we expect a digestion period at foundry (50% KLAC Mar orders) as utilization rates plateau and yields improve. Our current F03 EPS estimate is $1.35 (Street at $1.37). * Better relative visibility and profit leverage, but valuation issue looms. Stock is trading at 3.9 times book and 15.2 times C04 EPS – fully valued relative to SCE average (2.5 and 10 times) and 25% above 1998 trough BV of 2.7 times. We would argue strong management, profit leverage and product footprint deserves premium valuation. Expect KLA’s fundamentals to fare better than SCE but lack of positive news catalyst and high valuation likely to continue to weigh on stock into summer months. investor.cnet.com