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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (35419)	7/31/2002 3:58:57 AM
From: paul_philp	Respond to of 281500

Carl, I agree with you about the cost of war. One of the reasons the total costs are not discussed is because any particular outcome is uncertain. It is easy to dismiss individual uncertain outcomes as unlikely or speculative. It is more difficult to combine all the possible outcomes and see that a bad outcome is likely. This is why I need the threat from Saddam to be both real and imminent. The cost of allowing Saddam to remain unchallenged IS very high since the likliehood of a bad outcome is high. However, Bush is not acting as if there was an imminent threat. There seems to be urgency behind the idea of attacking Iraq. If it can wait until the timing is convenient then I suspect the threat is not sufficient. Paul