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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tonka552000 who wrote (3564)	7/31/2002 12:33:38 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

I believe trade gap data arrives faster than GDP the June current account deficit data came in over a week ago May was greater than April, and June was greater than May so the trade gap is widening despite the US econ slowdown the current account deficit is the sum of the import/export delta plus the investment delta (e.g. acquisitions) it must be easier to tally incoming and outgoing dollars at the borders from import/ export since US GDP involves great complexity and vast data, it takes much longer to calculate they also have deflator indexes to handle price inflation so much more complex I think the two are calculated independently, separately but in general if GDP slows, then trade gap can drop but not if foreign economies slow down also I have predicted steadily that the lower USdollar WILL NOT end up reducing the trade gap since a declining dollar seriously hurts foreign economies case in point... as the dollar rises, Japan Nikkei suffers, since they have an export-based economy inhibited by a rising jyen the Japanese Govt fights tooth & nail to stop the jyen appreciation with BoJ intervention as the dollar rises, even European bourses suffer, since they run a slight trade surplus my point is simple the entire world economy is GEARED toward a cheaper local currency versus the dollar as the dollar declines, IT DISRUPTS THE ENTIRE WORLD ECONOMY and shatters Asian banks, PERIOD / jim

To: tonka552000 who wrote (3564)	7/31/2002 1:20:44 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

13:09 ET Cisco Systems revs seen at low end of guidance-- Buckingham (CSCO) 12.93 -0.41: Buckingham Research downgrades to NEUTRAL from Accumulate and cuts price target to $12 from $25 (based on 25x CY03 earnings vs 35x before). Firm expects CSCO to post in-line EPS, but revs at the low end of guidance. Firm's channel checks indicate that CSCO is shipping product right up until the end of the qtr (which ends today), an indication of weaker than expected sales... CSCO is scheduled to report Aug. 6.