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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jcky who wrote (35495)	7/31/2002 1:43:33 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

So is Saddam's tendency for miscalculations a function of his character pathology or lack of credible information? Does it make a difference? Once a man has established himself in a Stalin-like position, he is not going to get good information and his paranoia will only grow. So he is liable to miscalculations for both causes together. It's true that Saddam has been a secular tyrant and has shown no taste for martyrdom. But nevertheless I don't think you can dismiss the influence of Islamism on Saddam. The dream of another Saladin, a restored caliphate, exerts a great siren song over all of Arab politics. With Islamism in the ascendancy, Saddam's rhetoric has begun to partake of this religious nostalgia and he now goes out of his way to be filmed going to mosque, reading Koran, etc. For an Arab tyrant to be acknowledged as a caliph is the brass ring in Arab politics, and the lure of pursuing it should not be underestimated. Policy often follows rhetoric (particularly if the rhetoric stirs an emotional storm) in Arab politics, more than it does rational calculations. The Six Day War was a case in point. Nasser didn't start off gung-ho for that war; it was more Syria and the USSR's idea. But after he made a few stirring speeches about how he was going to wipe Israel off the map and had been greated with wild adulation, his course was set.

To: jcky who wrote (35495)	7/31/2002 3:06:43 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 281500

Painting all muslim extremists with a single brush isn't going to solve the Iraq controversy. Where exactly did I "paint" all muslims with a "single brush"??? I SPECIFICALLY referred to Muslim EXTREMISTS, not the entire muslim world. And my point is that a small minority, through sheer terror, repression, and force of will, can control the destinies of hundreds of millions of more moderate muslims. And what Saddam HAS shown is the willingness to support extremist groups in order to destabilize and subvert other Arab regimes. Presumably this is to create the circumstances where he could present himself as the "solution", and gain greater influence. And you are absolutely correct that Saddam's intelligence apparatus will only tell him what he wants to hear. Saddam has only been out of Iraq approx 4 times during his life (remarkable that was also the case with Adolf Hitler). He wields an iron fist and perceives himself as infallible in his logic. He's also a great admirer of the "Godfather" movie series and perceives himself as the "Don Corleone" of Iraq. So you bet I worry about his obtaining nuclear or biological weapons. Either he would use them to brow-beat his fellow Arab states into submission, making him the new "Saladin", or provide them to terrorist groups in order to attack the US. I have no illusions about Saddam's desire for "martyrdom". But just as Lenin or Trosky were not Anarchists, they certainly weren't ignorant of the value of having Anarchists subverting the Russian government. It's just like the Saudis using Wahhabi extremists to subjugate other Arab tribes under their rule, only to have them all slaughtered once they had served their purpose. This is where Saddam fits in. Without a safe haven from which extremists can operate against the Saudis, the SA government will be much more cooperative in suppressing their internal dissidents and religious radicals. Take out Saddam and place Iraq under a custodial government (potentially Hashemite influenced), while subverting Iran's government to the east and instituting political change there. But personally, I don't see how the region can be any more destablized than would occur in a segmented Iraq. Especially should Saddam or Iran obtain WMDs and thus secure their regional political power. Hawk