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Gold/Mining/Energy : A to Z Junior Mining Research Site -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 4figureau who wrote (786)	7/31/2002 11:27:00 PM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

SKI Gold Stock Prediction >>I strongly believe, based upon past index patterns, that the bears have 2 more days left to demonstrate their case via another hard fall. On Friday the 7/26/02 reading of minus five on the 92-96 index will be dropping out. If the bears are to be correct, a new minus five should replace it on that day.<< Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D. for Thursday August 1st, 2002 Gold stocks surged yesterday (Tuesday), with USERX rising 6% to 3.95. That yielded a +5 for the day on the 92-96 index, but since a +5 also dropped out of the index, the index was basically unchanged (+48 plus the acceleration factor of 0/2 equaling +48). That was necessary, encouraging, and consistent with the bottom being in place. However, as previously stated, a 1-2 day rise would not prove anything. Today (Wednesday), the gold stocks fell slightly, with USERX dropping only 5 cents to 3.90. Note that the 92-96 day back prices for today were 3.90, 3.83, 3.84, 3.63, and 3.71. So we hit the 3.90 price, but closed over the other 4 prices to yield a +4 for today. A +5 was removed, with the index sum falling to +44 with an acceleration factor of [48-44]/2 yielding a +42. Today's price was perfect for keeping the bear/bull issue somewhat up in the air. The index keeps breaking, which is dangerous and bearish because if the 92-96 sells it will occur on a plunge down. However, today's decline did the least possible damage to the index! I strongly believe, based upon past index patterns, that the bears have 2 more days left to demonstrate their case via another hard fall. On Friday the 7/26/02 reading of minus five on the 92-96 index will be dropping out. If the bears are to be correct, a new minus five should replace it on that day. That means that USERX will need to be below 3.83 on Friday. Furthermore, to maintain the bullish case by avoiding the 92-96 index sell signal, prices will need to be in the 4.10-4.40 range within 7 trading days. Gold's six-day down run was obviously ended yesterday, as expected. After that one up close, anything is allowed to happen. Therefore, gold's run pattern is not helpful in predicting tomorrow's market behavior. In conclusion, this is all very tenuous. If the XXing Out was basically correct, the market has 2 more days to commence another drop. Otherwise, we should avoid the 92-96 sell signal and rise to a new 35-39 index buy signal by the end of August, embarking on another dramatic leg up over the remainder of the year. 321gold.com