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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: stockman_scott who wrote (3650)8/1/2002 10:22:16 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
July ISM Index, which showed a reading of 50.5
That was below the consensus estimate of 55.0 and down from 56.2 in the prior month... Though the ISM reading is still suggestive of growth in the manufacturing sector, the market is disheartened by the decline from the prior month as it feeds concerns about the pace, and sustainability, of the economic recovery

ONCE MORE ECONOMISTS GOT IT VERY WRONG
they expected ISI (formerly known as NAPM) at 55.0
actual was 50.5
only 10% off
try that in real business and you get fired

this could be from total lack of profits which fund investment
it could be from damage to foreign economies from declining USdollar
whichever, neither seems to enter economists boilerplate models
those models might have been relevant in the 1970-1985 era
but not now, not any longer

the DoubleDip Recession has been disputed, discredited, dismissed, and found to be politically incorrect

unfortunately, its validity is being reinforced weekly
before Christmas we should see the USdollar decline in full resumption, with the astonishing and perplexing development that interest rates are rising
as foreigners sell USTBonds

/ jim