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Strategies & Market Trends : Dave Gore's Trades That Make Sense -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (10384)	8/1/2002 11:59:58 PM
From: Dave Gore	Respond to of 16631

Jorj, the best ODOD or ODOW's are companies who have already announced earnings and good guidance. If they are undervalued and perhaps a silly overreaction occurs do to news or the market or sector tanking, it works better. When you know the company is about to hold a CC to explain things, even better if you know management. The key for me is these all had a downside risk of under 2-10% and an upside of 15-100%. Four of the safest ODOD or ODOW Plays Lately MIR had a PE under 2 and had just beat earnings by 2 cents (i.e. 36 cents for the qtr). Sure there was lots of negative news in the sector, but enough was enough. And when I knew the C.C. was starting and management handles calls real well. Why not? It was a perfect setup. Further help was that Briefing and a Goldman loved the stock at $7-8 just a few weeks ago. RESULT: $2.50 to 4.50 (an 80% gain in 2 days). A terrific ODOM Reward/risk play. ADVP had a fantastic earnings report and guidance. Trading at a very low multiple. When this OLD news came out today that had nothing new, and then the company was going to hold a C.C. (they also do a great job with analysts), I knew fears would be calmed. RESULT: $17 to $20.30 (an 18% gain in 3 hours) How about WM at $30.80 when the C news came out and C started to come back? Here was the safest play. Bill Nygren's top pick. WM just had a great earnings report of over $1.00/share for the quarter. It is a solid regional bank, and had no connection (except psychological) to C or JPM's problems. They are money center banks. RESULT: WM went from $31 to almost $38 and was a very safe play. Many others, perhaps the second safest was THQI. Guided 35% higher YOY yet was 2 points below their 52 week low. in a superb sector. Mentioned as a fave in Money Mag. RESULT: a 35% gain from $18 to $25 in 3 days.