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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (13994)	8/1/2002 8:07:50 PM
From: macavity	Respond to of 19219

Alive and well! Ken, glad to see you still giving your views. I am surprised that anyone would really want my view, but like you I believe that SI should be a forum for exchanges of ideas and opinions. I have learnt one hell of a lot on this and other threads. The thing is to integrate it into one's own style. My view. I remember commenting to you about the USD before that I believed that it had formed an intermediate term low. I reckon I use a system similar to LW. Recently I am using my own take on sentiment to add to the mix (learnt from you and some painful losses). USD - intermediate momentum low. I say momentumn as the price low is often broken and provided it is bullishly divergent I still expect the analysis to be correct. So I am with you on the dollar. Long-term the USD bubble is over. For equities - $SPX - it is a mixed bag. Similarly I believe that we have made an intermediate momentum low - for very much the same reasons as the $USD. Though the trend has not changed to confirm this. In fact I also believe that we have just topped in $SPX (short-term) and will be heading back down. I have no idea how far, as I am really just a trend (momentum) follower. A retest is possible but I will see how the market behaves at the 29Jul gap. Watch out for Bonds - if they break the Sep2001 highs then there is something really bad afoot - Japan style post-bubble syndrome. The only real view that I have is Gold. This selloff has been sharp and a lot of stocks have hit their 1 year EMA's. Counter trend movements are always quicker than trend movements (I learnt this somewhere), so despite the sell-off the monthly trend is still in tact. Boy does that monthly trend look good. I have not yet got a buy signal on these and usually my signals are early (too early) so I am loath to jump in. If bonds breakout and the deflation boys jump out the woodwork then these are going to the moon. My own method is that I look at sector and market indices on various timeframes, Gold and Mining stocks are the only good BULL (Buy&Hold) market out there now. I have my own ideas why this might be, but in all honesty, I have tried to reduce the amount of thinking "WHY" and worrying instead about the "WHEN & WHAT". Rydex. It is a disappointment that no-one comments on Rydex, but my view is that a lot of the methods used are actually wrong. I reckon that Rydex has to be used with Price Action to confirm, or counter it. Someone (not sure who) was using a method that looked at divergences of Fund Values with Index Levels, to ascertain if Rydex movements where based on price movements or buying/selling. Just looking at Rydex Levels (and their changes) in themselves, without ascertaining the buy/sell component is deceptive. Still I do not get the data, and do not use it so I cannot criticise it. I lurk on this board as there is frequently some good analysis and comment, provided it stays civil. -still learning! -macavity

To: High-Tech East who wrote (13994)	8/1/2002 8:10:28 PM
From: Killswitch	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

I made some nice money on the short side today, held the positions overnight, plan to start attempting longs again tomorrow or whenever that Nasdaq gap gets closed and it hits the 1255 target from the consolidation it broke down out of today. This time I won't be shaken out so easily, as I'm quite greedy and want to catch what I guess is at least a possible 20% upmove in the Naz coming soon. Like I said previously I think the Rydex data was pointing out that this initial pop had run its course and was due for reversing. We'll see what it looks like tonight, and at the moment I admit to being uncertain how much farther down we go. I am leaning bullish for the next 4-6 weeks as everything from the VIX, Zeev, etc. is saying we made an intermediate term bottom. I think the best plan may be to just gradually scale in long as we go below the Nasdaq gap, and then see if the Naz holds above the recent low. If it breaks it, then bail out. It would be ok with me if the NDX/SOX broke their lows by a slight amount. Note: a gap down tomorrow morning that "sticks" and forms an island reversal on the Naz would definitely make me hold off on any longs until either the Naz or SOX proves itself to me by holding the recent lows. The SOX already has a target from the broken consolidation today of 304.