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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (35670)	8/1/2002 6:52:22 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 281500

<<...The effect on US foreign policy would be to decrease the freedom that the executive branch has to choose policy on its own...>> That may be a blessing in disguise...=)

To: Bilow who wrote (35670)	8/1/2002 7:07:18 PM
From: Elsewhere	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

OT but if the stock market declines further in its traditional month of October The worst stock market month is actually September, see Monthly Market Returns moneychimp.com October has only become notorious due to the crashes in 1929 and 1987. On average the best period to be long is from November to April: Timing the Market benbest.com

To: Bilow who wrote (35670)	8/2/2002 4:13:02 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 281500

Hi all; I thought I should elaborate on my comment: "... if the stock market declines further in its traditional month of October ..." Stocks are trading in such a pattern that I believe that there is a substantial probability of a market panic during October, or maybe earlier. Market panics (i.e. pricing discontinuities / market closures associated with no or almost no real news) are rather rare things. There's only been 4 in the last 110 years, 1893, 1907, 1929, and 1987. Three of them happened in Octobers. The current stock market chart is showing a breaking down head and shoulders formation. Even though only a fairly small percentage of the population believes in stock charting, that percentage is enough to move markets substantially. In that sense, market panics are sort of self-fulfilling. Anyway, all I'm saying is that there is a good chance that the next 90 days could get ugly. -- Carl