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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex MG who wrote (98297)	8/2/2002 12:34:36 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99280

Horrible Call on the Nasdaq? Selling near a short term top and then buying over 2/3 of the way to a possible major low is not a horrible call by any means. Of course, we'll need to see where the Nas goes from here. I've made plenty of money over the years by selling near the highs and buying gradually from 1/2 of the way down until the absolute low. Momentum players who sell well after the peak and buy well after the trough don't necessarily do any better in the long run. The Nas was in the 1400-1450 area at the end of June, not its ultimate bottom, but well below its 2002 peak. (Personally, I'm loaded up with Equity Income and S&P correlated funds, and looking to close my 20% Nasdaq position.)

To: Alex MG who wrote (98297)	8/2/2002 3:10:48 AM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

I agree Zeev has not done badly at all. Even if his latest bull call is wrong, considering how he anticipated the Nassacre and has benefited from his other recent bull suit calls then he has done very well. And of course, he could still be proven right on the current bull call, which will make his record in the last 12 mths truly excellent. Where I do disagree with him is the call for a strong rally, even from these low levels. I think his increased top target comes from the belief that we have now capitulated, whereas at the end of June we hadn't had the capitulation and GNTs he was looking for. I believe we still haven't capitulated as shown by the high equity P/C and the speed with which implied volatilities have come back down and short rallies have reversed. I am also very bearish of MSFT (there is some very good analysis on MSFT on Velo's "Raptor's Den" thread) which I think will bring the indices down sharply. IMO, the fund redemptions we have seen is not a case of money moving to the "sidelines" as the bulls claim. The 2 yr+ bear is taking its financial toll and people are withdrawing their money to pay for the essentials of life, and for the interest payments on the goods they bought when they had new found wealth in their investment accounts. When the MSFT and tech carnage is over, I think there is money to be made from shorting the financials and real estate sectors. I should note I disagreed with Zeev at the end of September last year. He claimed to see capitulation and I said we hadn't. I was proved wrong and had a bad few months marketwise as a result. I guess eventuallly I was proven right by the failure of the Sep lows, but my predictions and investing at the time assumed more immediate downside and from that point of view, I was wrong.