"1X is a failure."
DoCoMo and Nokia only wish that were so...
yankeegroup.com
Update on 3G Service Takeup and Operator Strategies
Event Summary
Over six months have passed since NTT DoCoMo introduced its 3G-FOMA service in
October 2001. Total number of FOMA users as of the end of April 2002 reached
105,500 users. On April 1 DoCoMo's competitor, KDDI also introduced its
cdma2000-1x-based 3G service; and in contrast to DoCoMo's lower than expected
performance, KDDI has managed to ramp up 334,100 users in a single month. NTT
DoCoMo estimated that it would have reached 150,000 FOMA subscribers by the end
of March 2002. By the end of fiscal year 2002 (March 2003), NTT DoCoMo projects its
3G user base will amount to 1.38 million, while KDDI forecasts its 3G user base will
reach over 7 million.
Market Impact
According to NTT DoCoMo, the operator will continue to develop and expand its 2G
PDC-based digital service offering along with and its 3G W-CDMA FOMA services. On
the other hand, KDDI has already stopped development in 2G PDC handsets/services,
and is focusing all development on CDMA-based services. In addition, according to
KDDI, all future handsets will be 1x-CDMA-enabled.
As Dr. Tachikawa, CEO of NTT DoCoMo, has described at a recent shareholders'
meeting, the Japanese wireless market is going through a period of transition.
Subscriber growth is being increasingly driven by data usage, and no longer voice. As
such, KDDI's strategy to aggressively develop, position, and deploy its 1x-CDMA 3G
service is reflective of this trend.
Recommendations
· In the 2G world of digital wireless, NTT DoCoMo has been and is the undisputed
leading operator. However, as recent market trends, service development, and
user adoption trends seem to indicate, next-generation wireless may bring a shift
in the wireless/mobile market structure in Japan.
· Later this year, Vodafone/J-Phone, the third 3G license holder and global
operator is scheduled to introduce its next-generation wireless service. Recent
market developments should give J-Phone valuable information on how it should
position and market its 3G services.
· According to a recent forecast developed by Yankee Group Japan, we anticipate
by the year 2010 there will be more than 250 million wireless/mobile data devices
deployed in addition to the traditional voice and data wireless handsets.
Applications of these data devices will vary greatly generating significantly
different levels data traffic. For example, there will be man-to-machine or
man-to-man devices generating and transmitting multimedia files; and there will
be telemetric devices that may transmit small amounts of data on a regular (e.g.,
once a week, etc.) basis.
· As the wireless market and applications develop and expand to encompass such
varying levels of usage and traffic volume, we will need to develop more
appropriate ways to count and measure traffic and performance besides simply
counting the number of subscribers.
sg.biz.yahoo.com
Japan KDDI/3G Users -2: Over 10M CDMA2000 Users Globally
Japan KDDI Now Has 829,000 3G Users,Adding 10,000 Per Day
HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--KDDI Corp. (J.KDD) has signed up 829,000 subscribers on its third-generation
mobile network since its launch April 1 and is gaining 10,000 new subscribers day, a top executive said Wednesday.
Speaking at a 3G World Congress in Hong Kong, Hideo Okinaka, general manager of the strategic technology
planning department, said the Japanese mobile operator had 829,000 users as of Monday, and is signing up about
10,000 new subscribers a day.
Given the strong demand, he said, the company is targeting
"several million" subscribers by the end of this fiscal year,
which ends March 31. Other company officials have earlier
said the company hopes to sign up 7 million subscribers in the
first 12 months.
Okinaka said by the end of 2002, KDDI's network, which is
based on CDMA2000 1X technology, will cover 90% or more
of Japan's population, compared with 54% at the time of
launch. CDMA stands for code division multiple access and is
a standard developed by Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM).
Okinaka said the choice of technology is one reason KDDI's service has grown more rapidly than that of its main rival NTT DoCoMo Inc. (DCM).
He said KDDI's upgrade to CDMA2000 1X is building on its nationwide second generation CDMAOne network, which means that its subscribers don't need to switch networks in order to access the services. They only have to upgrade to a 3G handset.
It also means that KDDI has been able to roll out the network very quickly, he said.
With regard to handsets, Okinaka said, the CDMA-based 3G phones can be made with the same size, same weight, same battery life and at the same cost as the second generation technology phones.
"This is an advantage versus WCDMA," he said.
NTT DoCoMo is providing its 3G services on a network based on the Wideband CDMA technology, or WCDMA, which builds on global system for mobile communication, or GSM, which is a competing 2G standard heavily
supported by European operators. In the first eight months after it was launched Oct. 1, NTT DoCoMo's service
has attracted 112,300 subscribers.
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires 12-06-02
DJ Japan KDDI/3G Users -2: Over 10M CDMA2000 Users Globally
The rapid subscriber growth in KDDI's recently launched network is in line with global trends, as networks based on the CDMA2000 1X technology are adding nearly 1.5 million subscribers per month, according to the CDMA Development Group.
In a statement Wednesday, the nonprofit trade organization, which includes both operators and equipment makers
as its members, said there are more than 10 million CDMA2000 subscribers worldwide. These account for more
than 98% of the total number of 3G users, it added.
There are now 15 operators in the Americas, Asia and Europe offering 3G services through CDMA 2000
networks. Two operators, South Korea's SK Telecom (SKM) and KT Freetel (Q.KTF), launched a higher-speed
version of this technology called CDMA2000 1xEV-DO earlier this year.
Another seven operators are planning to launch 1X EV-DO networks in the next two quarters, Perry LaForge,
executive director of the CDMA Development Group, said at a media luncheon.
-By Anette Jonsson, Dow Jones Newswires; 852-2802-7002; anette.jonsson@dowjones.com |
