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Strategies & Market Trends : Dave Gore's Trades That Make Sense -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Gore who wrote (10388)	8/2/2002 12:17:58 AM
From: Dave Gore	Respond to of 16631

ORB ---- 10 trades worked except ORB. Will it become a winner soon? Of the 9 winning trades I mentioned earlier, I forgot to mention the safest R/R play of all. That was WM, Bill Nygren of Oakmark's top pick. What a great buy at under $31 a couple weeks ago. But I was off on ORB. It was $4-$5 (and down from $8) when they announced a great earnings report recently in which they beat consensus by 6 cents (i.e. reported 12 cents diluted vs. 6 cents). Luckily I got stopped out at $3.95. So what happened and why is it below $3? Credit worries and an eventual downgrade by S&P. But those who really read the S&P reports saw that S&P made positive comments about their improvement and said they would upgrade their credit rating after their funding came in. Today near the bell Briefing.com reported that the CEO said the company was close to a favorable financing package (thanks in part to great earnings and a huge backlog of business from Boeing and Lockheed). If you believe him, then the one negative for this company will be removed. ORB stock was recently $8. and now is $2.70. EPS next year will be 70 cents or more EPS this year will be 43 cents or more ** Their backlog is huge and business is excellent, needless to say. I like this one. I wouldn't go too crazy but it seems a good time to take a 1/3 - 1/2 position for the near to intermediate term. Just my 2 cents. Let's see if a bit more panic occurs before it becomes a great time to buy. FROM YAHOO AND ORB PR. DEPT. Re: Convertible Debt Refinancing by: namesbegone 08/01/02 06:21 pm Msg: 19863 of 19877 This tracked with what the PR guy told me. He said they are on schedule for the refinancing and that it was never intended to happen before the earnings announcement (as some posters had speculated). The earnings should help the negotiation. We should get an announcement soon. They are painfully aware of what is happening and said it is no reflection of the business. Just nervous nellies on the debt issue.