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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (35703)	8/2/2002 2:21:48 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Yes, I didn't really go into the Cheney story because it's OT. But since you mention it, -g- I read a big, breathless, Page One story that basically accuses Cheney of having done insufficient due diligence when Haliburton acquired Dresser. So? Let the shareholders sue if they care to.

To: LindyBill who wrote (35703)	8/2/2002 2:27:27 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

Interesing analysis of Bashar Assad by Ze'ev Schiff. My question is, what is Bashar Assad thinking? He has gone into alliance with one regime that will probably be overthrown by its own people (Iran), and another that is directly in the gunsights of the world's sole superpower (Iraq). His dad stayed out of Gulf War I, but Bashar is lining up with Saddam, and is about to let Hizbullah ignite Israel's Northern front to boot. What makes him think he is immune to attack? Or is he so weak that his only hope lies in attack by an external enemy? Or is he just nuts? _______________________________________________________ Don't underestimate Assad Jr. By Ze'ev Schiff The disclosure that Syria has been acting as a secret arms supplier for Saddam Hussein is but the tip of the iceberg, testifying to strategic changes taking place in Syria since Bashar Assad succeeded his mythological father. Belittling the young, inexperienced heir, who had once planned on a medical career, is a thing of the past. Bashar Assad's primary objective, it seems, is to create a strategic Syria-Iran-Iraq triangle against Israel, disregarding any emotional baggage left over from his father's time. On the one hand, the policies of Hafez Assad are generally being continued, and on the other, a dramatic reversal is under way in certain spheres. Evidence of the continuity of direction are ties with radicals among the Iranian leadership. If there is any difference, it is Damascus's interest in cooperating with Iran on more arms projects like the ground-to-ground missile project. The profound change is in Syria's relations with Iraq. In Hafez Assad's time, there were no ties between the two countries. Agreeing to supply arms to Saddam Hussein is only one facet of this newfound friendship. Bashar's great achievement is having inaugurated a fast-growing economic relationship in which oil plays a major role. An oil pipeline between Iraq and Syria is now delivering 200,000 barrels a day, according to estimates. Plans are being made to build another pipeline along with jointly-owned storage depots on the Mediterranean coast. A railroad network is also on the drawing board. The annual volume of trade between Syria and Iraq is close to $2 billion. Some of this comes via Jordan: half of all Jordanian manufacturers producing light industrial goods for Iraq have relocated to Syria. From virtually no relations, a political axis has developed that is chiefly concerned with thwarting efforts to establish a pan-Arab coalition in support of a U.S. attack on Iraq. The Syrians claim that such an attack will only strengthen Israel. In practice, we are talking about Syrian-Iraqi cooperation against Washington that began before the Arab summit in Beirut, with reciprocal ministerial visits and an exchange of letters between Saddam Hussein and Bashar Assad. Now it is Israel's urgent business to ensure that no operational-military cooperation is developing between Syria and Iraq in addition to the weapons program, particularly, joint support of terror. The fact that Syria granted Ramadan Shalah, head of Islamic Jihad, permission to leave Damascus for a visit to Iraq may be a sign that something dangerous is brewing. Another major shift is in Bashar Assad's attitude toward Hezbollah. In Hafez Assad's day, the leader of Hezbollah would have spent a long time in the waiting room before the Syrian president would receive him. Bashar meets with Hezbollah head Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah frequently. Today his door is open to the Hezbollah leader, who has become a strategic partner and not just a tenant to whom Syria has deigned to rent a room. Hezbollah has been militarily integrated into the Syrian army in Lebanon. For the first time, Damascus has directly supplied the Shi'ite organization with heavy arms of its own, including a new 220 mm rocket. While this is going on, Iranian troops are deployed in Lebanon, engaged in laying infrastructure for Hezbollah in the south, among other activities. The key question is whether Bashar Assad will suffice with building up his power of deterrence, or will he rather be tempted into indirectly testing his strength against Israel, as his new friend Nasrallah is no doubt urging him to do. Much depends on what the Americans and French say, but also on Israel's determination to exact a heavy price for any actions against it. One way or another, Assad Jr. should not be underestimated. haaretzdaily.com