To: long-gone who wrote (88490 ) 8/2/2002 8:22:04 AM From: Richnorth Respond to of 116779 Watch out for rising dragon, sinking sun Experts say China is emerging in Asia to fill the influential role that economically stagnant Japan is slowly relinquishing A RISING dragon and a sinking sun - that is what Asia can expect as China and Japan assume new roles in the region, according to experts at an international conference yesterday. While the United States remains the world's sole superpower, Japan is slowly losing its confidence after a decade of economic stagnation that shows no sign of ending. China, on the other hand, appears to be waking from its more-than-a-century-long slumber and is reclaiming its rightful position on the regional and international stage, said Mr Brad Glosserman, an expert on the Asia-Pacific from the US Centre of Strategic and International Studies. Speaking yesterday at the two-day conference titled 'Contemporary China-Japan Relations: Conflict and Cooperation' organised by the East Asian Institute, Mr Glosserman anticipated a 'geopolitical earthquake' involving China, Japan and the US. That scenario, echoed by other speakers, has many implications: Japan, once Asia's leading nation, is accepting that it has limited world power. China is enjoying better bilateral ties with the US and gaining a stronger place in Asia. The changing fortunes of Japan and China are having an impact on the Korean Peninsula. South-east Asia is the main battlefield for influence between China and Japan. Elaborating, Mr Glosserman said that although the US would like Japan to take a higher profile within Asia, Tokyo is facing diminishing resources. In fact, the Asia-Pacific watcher noted, a recent study concluded that 'the Japanese do not see themselves as world leaders either economically or politically... they accept that they have limited world power and they expect their future to be no different from the present, if not worse'. In contrast, the future for China is a lot rosier. While the Bush Administration has never attempted to hide its concern about a rising China, Beijing's anti-terrorism efforts have taken some of the sharper edges off the US-China relationship, Mr Glosserman pointed out. US Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz also played down the idea of a 'China threat' recently, saying that the US is hopeful of a positive outcome in China's emergence as a major power. As for the new order's impact on the Korean Peninsula, Mr Glosserman said, one fallout is China's becoming the market of the future for South Korean businesses and its rise to be Seoul's second-largest trading partner. Seoul also needs Beijing's support when dealing with Pyongyang, whose only major ally is China. In South-east Asia, where 'Japan used to be America's 'deputy'... when the sheriff was otherwise occupied', Mr Glosserman said a competition for influence between Japan and China is also intensifying. 'Most of the governments and businesses in South-east Asia are looking to China rather than Japan,' he said. In assessing all these changes, the conference - attended by about 40 participants from countries and regions including China, Japan, the US, Britain, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore - concluded that the best way forward is cooperation between China and Japan.straitstimes.asia1.com.sg (August 2nd edn.)