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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex MG who wrote (14011)	8/3/2002 4:51:53 AM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

"I still see a high possibility of a significant rally from a retest of the July 24 lows" I agree, subject to clarifying that "significant rally" means something like 15%, rather than the bigger rally we had throughout the end of last year. The VIX spike at 57 may well have been a selling climax, but VIX is now 45.39 so the fuel from that climax has been at least partially expended. Equity put call is not in the region of major bottoms. Rydex Nova/Ursa ratio made a monthly high on Jul 29 and is still high compared to the last 30 days' prices. Sentiment polls indicate sentiment is improving slightly. This wasn't the case at the Sep 2001 "bottom" that many are comparing the current period to. I closed my shorts near the close on Thursday and am thinking I was a little too cautious. I will see what Monday brings in terms of equity P/C and implied volatility before making any plans for next week's trading.