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To: AllansAlias who wrote (48746)	8/2/2002 1:11:48 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Money could be moving out of bonds............. 11:23 ET Brokerage firms cutting GDP forecasts; upping rate cut forecasts : Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 and 2003 GDP forecasts and now sees Fed rate cuts of 75 bp in Q4 vs a previous expectation of no rate cuts. Salomon Smith Barney also said this morning that it sees roughly a 50% chance of a 50 bp rate cut at the Aug 13 FOMC meeting. Other brokerage firms have also been cutting economic forecasts and upping rate cut forecasts. The economic forecast changes are just lagging indications of recent economic news, but the growing expectations of Fed rate cuts might get some notice, as the Fed does tend to take market expectations into account when making rate decisions.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (48746)	8/2/2002 1:19:35 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Allan, Any ideas how long this wiggle 'iv' might last? Ö¿Ö

To: AllansAlias who wrote (48746)	8/2/2002 1:28:26 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

13:26 ET JP Morgan Chase falls again on derivatives rumors (JPM) 23.69 -1.33: We are hearing a number of rumors that may explain the hit JPM shares are taking today; a rumor is circulating among traders that JPM has an estimated $51 bln in net derivatives exposure-- nearly 3x any other U.S. bank, while corporate bond desks are saying that a rumor of a large bank with massive derivatives losses is hitting spreads; keep in mind, however, that these rumors have been around for some time now (see JPM archives), and S&P on July 24 said that JPM's equity base should provide comfort against unanticipated event risk.