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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (28907)	8/3/2002 6:02:43 AM
From: Ditchdigger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

<Zeev's thread contained too many posts and was useless for anyone having a life.> True, so I skip many and read the ones from posters that interest me...gonna be a beautiful day here, a perfect "motoring" day..;^)DD [PS: I think it is time to think about setting up a thread on I-hub, SI appears to be slowly rotting on the vine,,dead slow and being bombarded with cookies.. "Posted by: Zeev Hed In reply to: Faruk who wrote msg# 11171 Date:8/2/2002 10:42:01 PM Post #of 11213 Unemployment is not rising, it is still under 6%, bad for the unemployed and underemployed, but the employed are doing fine (wages still rising). If your technical indicators point to a bottom as mine do, forget about the "fundamentals" and the current bleak picture, the current bleak picture is "what was". Every report, from "Corporate America", almost with no exclusion, points to "lowering of expectations". I think expectations have been lowered so much that beating these lowered expectations, will be surprisingly easy for Corporate America. It is too easy to make the case now for an economic relapse, once every one on the tube talks about double dip, you know that is not what is going to be delivered, economically (On the day the Dow brushed with 7500, Maria B. finally suggested that maybe, just maybe, it is time to engage in shorting <g). I listened to some of the talking heads, and I am surprised that no one mentions the quite large fiscal stimulus that deficit spending can cause (nor the bitter medicine that needs to be taken later when such become excessive <g). Hey, I did not hear anyone mention that since the end of May the national debt grew by $160 B, or so. I think that the economic model being missed by the media is the one of stagnation. We now have put together three consecutive quarters of growth in the economy (2.7%, 5% and the most recent one 1.1%, which I believe may be restated downward.) That after three down quarters (which really did not amount to "much of a recession" with the total yearly decline at .6% if one believes the numbers). We may simply have few years of the same, two three quarters up, two three quarters down (we had the same in the 70'.), culminating with at least one real bad recession lasting a solid 4 to 6 quarters. We may have "supply siders" in the White House, but their economics surely looks much more like "demand siders". The bolus of deficit spending, just like late last year, will percolate through the economy and probably prevent at least the fourth quarter from being negative (the third, I don't know, it might be too late and too much momentum was lost) Now might be the time to try and estimate how bad the next down turn will be. Because of the low interest rates, one could expect another wave of refinancing, liquifying another sector of the consumer universe. But what happens after that wave? The last report from the Automobile industry, was sales rate at an annual rate of 18 MM (that number should bode well for a company like IRF that supplies a lot of the electronic gears to the Automotive sector), I believe a record, zero financing can do that for a little while longer, but whatever "pent up demand" might still be there is being soaked by exactly these superb current numbers. The next downturn, will thus be more severe than what we had last year (and thus maybe the markets rightfully have gone down below last year's low, and after a bounce, may even go to newer lows). The market, IMTO, will react more to its internal dynamics rather than to actual present economic numbers, after all these numbers are reflection of past events. The internal dynamics, IMTO, are ripe for a sizeable advance. ah, too much ranting...apologies. Zeev" investorshub.com