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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37907)	8/2/2002 5:13:08 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68470

Dear Colleague: Will 3G mobile data networking be severely affected by wireless LAN “hotspots?” There is now ample evidence that many of the applications that providers once assumed for 3G wireless networks may be more appropriately served by public 802.11 WLANs. Consider that you’re away from your home or office (where wired or WLAN connectivity are presumably readily available) and need to communicate. If in your car driving, it’s arguably possible to safely carry on a voice phone conversation. But you probably won’t try to check your email, use a browser to read web pages, or compose text messages while driving (hopefully other drivers will similarly refrain from these activities). If out traveling and you actually do need to check your email or a website, then (not while driving your car) you’re likely to find a public WLAN hotspot at restaurants, coffeeshops, shopping centers, hotels, airports, train stations or other places where people congregate. Ultimately they'll be on planes and some trains. A huge number of public places will provide WLAN broadband access to the Internet -- you'll be able to sit and check email or surf the web; public WLANs will become the true wireless Internet. So where does this leave 3G data networking? It looks like 3G will be appropriate for a different class of devices and data applications. To effectively read a website or compose email requires a laptop or PDA larger and heaver, and with less battery life than a typical cellphone. In contrast, many mobile data applications can be tailored for smaller/lighter devices more closely resembling cellphones, and will require minimal keyboard entry. These data-enabled cellphones should also be much simpler and easier to operate than a laptop or PDA; they will permit download of a small number of applications selected by the user. Such applications and services can be tailored to the characteristics of these mobile devices. For example, built-in cameras will permit users to exchange photos during a voice conversation; photos or short videos may be included in multimedia messaging services. Mobile wireless providers have identified many types of applications for which they believe customers will pay, beyond today’s popular downloading of new ringtones. These include games, streaming audio/video content, transactions and many information services. Given the size of the mobile wireless user market, data applications represent an immense revenue opportunity if done right. A key differentiator for 3G data applications is location awareness; applications will be able to leverage the network’s knowledge of where the user is located. While many people fear that this will result in location-aware “spam” -- e.g., unsolicited advertisements from local merchants -- there are also many useful applications. For example, users could search for the nearest business offering a particular product or service, get directions to a merchant location or find the nearest restaurants of a particular type or chain. Location information also could be combined with real-time updates or status, such as traffic information. Your phone, linked via Bluetooth to your car’s in-dash GPS/navigation system, could interact with a local traffic monitoring system, generate an alert and suggest ways to reroute your drive around a major accident ahead. 3G mobile wireless networks are likely to have much greater geographic coverage than WLAN hotspots. Widespread deployment of public WLANs may be delayed by the immaturity of the business models surrounding their use: billing, service roaming and security issues still have to be worked out. While many of the applications and devices used to access WLANs vs. 3G cellular networks are likely to be different, there are situations where these network services may be complementary. First-responder units (e.g., police and fire) may exploit public WLANs where they can be found, but otherwise make use of slower 3G networks when out in neighborhoods. Similarly, salespeople visiting customer locations are likely to resort to 3G data networks, since customers are not likely to let these visitors access their secure enterprise WLANs; on the other hand, salespeople will routinely need to access public WLANs while traveling. So, expect to see dual-mode WLAN/3G NICs or devices. Voicestream Wireless (with its T-Mobile European counterpart) already has announced that it is developing the ability for roaming between the two environments. Many 3G providers may be well-positioned to offer public WLAN services; customers may find it convenient to access both types of networks via the same account. Figuring out if 3G wireless vs. WLAN hotspots are likely to be complementary or competitive is one of key issues we will be discussing at this year’s Next Generation Networks conference in October (NGN 2002, ngn2002.com. We’ve addressed this issue head-on in a debate session entitled “Hot Spots and Next Generation Cellular – Complement or Clash.” If you need to get up-to-speed on the latest 3G or WLAN developments, then attend the sessions “3G Wireless: Meeting High Expectations” or “802.11 Update.” One or both of these technologies are likely to become central to next-generation networks. See you in Boston. Dave Passmore NGN 2002 Conference Co-Chair Research Director, Burton Group John McQuillan NGN 2002 Conference Co-Chair President, McQuillan Ventures