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Strategies & Market Trends : Quarter to Quarter Aggressive Growth Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (3967)	8/2/2002 3:53:13 PM
From: yossarian67	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6932

Jack, congratulations on a terrific month!

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (3967)	8/2/2002 8:52:10 PM
From: puget206	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6932

Good work Jack. I sold my EP on the giant pop (after holding steady through the depressing lows). I shorted ERTS earlier (last week) and covered (but will probably get back in it -- just watching chart patterns). I'm short PG now (just a small amount presently, but it meets my fundamentally overvalued silly measure -- like IBM at $125). Mostly watching on the sidelines and constructing some plays. I'm more darting in/out. Different style of trading. Capex going up? Not soon I think. My suspicion on VZ -- and I haven't been watching their bonds -- is that this was the "brave pop" on earnings and you can grab the popcorn and watch it tank. Kind of like ADBE and SUNW and some others that have the "we are brave response" and fell away thereafter. (Nail weak shorts first.) Good luck; hope you are having a wonderful summer.

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (3967)	8/4/2002 9:41:18 AM
From: stomper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6932

Expect a bottom A bottom, or THE bottom. -g- What a great month for the month Jack...really nice job. -dave

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (3967)	8/4/2002 1:07:45 PM
From: Frederick Langford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6932

Nice work Jack. Some more Semi stuff... Semiconductor Sales Point to Slow Recovery By JOHN SCHWARTZ New York Times Saturday 8/3 Anemic growth figures from the semiconductor industry and a warning on earnings from National Semiconductor yesterday offered further proof that an economic recovery is not imminent. "The recovery is going to take a lot longer than people expected," said Mark Grossman, an industry analyst at S. G. Cowen Securities. The Semiconductor Industry Association stressed the good news in its announcement of quarterly sales figures yesterday: an increase of 5.8 percent, to $11.35 billion, in the June quarter. "The semiconductor industry is continuing the recovery that started late last year and we are encouraged by the progress we have made pulling out of the 2001 downturn," said the group's president, George Scalise, in a statement. But in fact, sales for the month of June showed a 0.2 percent decline over the previous month — essentially flat — and a 1.6 percent decline over the comparable month a year earlier. And sales for the quarter actually declined 1 percent in the Americas and 5 percent in Europe compared with the previous quarter, but were offset by a 16.3 percent increase in Japan and an 11 percent increase in the Asia-Pacific region. Industry analysts took those figures with less equanimity than the trade group. "The monthly number is kind of a groaner," said Dan K. Scovel of Needham & Company. "There's nothing to get excited about a flat month." The announcement from National Semiconductor after the close of markets on Thursday was one cause of a sharp sell-off in the stock market yesterday. The company told investors that it expected sales in its fiscal first fiscal of 2003, which ends Aug. 25, to be about the the same level as the company's recently completed fourth quarter, in which National Semiconductor reported $419.5 million in revenue. The company last month predicted that sales would grow as much as 8 percent in the current quarter, but said that overall order rates were lower than expected in June, especially for personal computers and peripheral devices like monitors. The company's stock closed yesterday at $16.88 a share, down 25 cents for the day. Other chip makers, including Advanced Micro Devices, Texas Instruments, Xilinx and Intel, also lost value in the selling wave. Industry analysts said that the causes of the semiconductor slump were clear, but the path to recovery was less so. Continuing weakness in the market for personal computers has hurt sales of the industry overall and at National Semiconductor, Mr. Scovel said, citing the fact that the greatest weakness was seen in microprocessors and memory chips, both heavily used in personal computers. A hoped-for recovery, which had been seen in increased sales earlier this year, turned out to be attributable to PC companies' building their inventories and not to an increase in product sales, so the industry continued to languish, analysts said. Compared with conditions in the market a year ago, which he characterized as "catastrophic," Mr. Scovel said the market showed signs of firming up and a possible recovery in what he called "a year of convalescence" marked by feeble growth. "The good news is it's not that bad," he said. "The bad news is it's not that good." Doug Andrey, a spokesman for the Semiconductor Industry Association, suggested that market conditions often turned upward in the fall as back-to-school purchases of computers and consumer electronics pick up on the way into the Christmas buying season. Another analyst, Scott G. Randall of SoundView Technologies Group, also saw reasons for hope in the seasonal sales cycles. "As an industry, we're slowly recovering," he said, though "the evidence won't be here until the fall."

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (3967)	9/8/2002 12:25:29 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6932

Portfolio performance for August was down 0.4% Gilder2002 down 56.0% YTD. Down 1% Fuel cells/Alt energy down 73.8% since August 2000. Down 0.3% for the month. Gorilla Hunters down 77.9% since December 3, 2000. Up 5% OC-192 down 90.4% since Mid-February 2001. Down 1% for the month May Additions HOOV $5.06 to 6.23. Up 23.1% June Additions TXCC $0.90 to 0.66. Down. 26.6%. Peaked in July. PFE $32.35 to 33.08. Up 2.2% HD $30.88 to 32.93 Up 6.6% August Additions BRCD $15.97 to 14.47 Down 9.3% DISH $16.48 to 17.80 Up 8.0% MIR $3.83 to 3.78. Down 1.3% SBC $24.83 to 24.74 Down 0.3% T 11.20 to 12.22 Up 9.1% WINS 3.33 to 3.51 Up 5.4% Deletions RCNC $1.46 to 1.48. Up 1.3% CIEN $4.03 to 3.45. Down 14.3% EMC $7.50 to 6.64. Down 11.4% CENT $15.00 to 12.90. Down 14.0% CSCO $11.38 to 12.25. Up 7.6% BBY $19.15 to 20.97. Up 9.5% AMAT $13.44 to 13.98. Up 4.0% NKE $44.09 to $44.00. Down 0.2% BEAS $6.36 to 6.49. Up 2.0% OSIP $14.77 to 15.52. Up 5.0% MIMS $12.11 to 10.31. Down 14.8% A look if 10K was invested in each stock. 250K Model starts anew each month. 21 Stocks rotated in January. (210K x 1.015)-210K = $3,150 profit or 1.5% profit 17 Stocks rotated in February (170K x -0.111) - 170K = $18,870 loss or -15,720K or down 6.2% YTD on 250K 20 Stocks rotated in March (200K x 1.019) - 200K = $3,800 profit or -11,920 or down 4.7% YTD on 250K 36 Stocks rotated in April (200K x -1.066) - 200K = $13,200 loss or -25,120 or down 12.5% YTD on 200K. 25 Stocks rotated in May (200K x 1.003) - 200K = $600 profit or -24520 or down 12.2% YTD on 200K 25 Stocks rotated in June (250K x -1.035) - 250K = 8750 loss or -$33270 or down 16.6% YTD on 200K 15 Stocks rotated in July. (150K x 121.5)- 150K = 32250 profit or -20 or down 0.1% YTD 200K 21 Stocks rotated in August. (210K x -100.4)- 210K = -840 loss or -860 or down 0.4% YTD on 200K Dow – 8736 to 8,663. Down 0.1% for period NASDAQ – 1328 to 1314. Down 1.0% for period S&P500 – 911 to 916. up 0.5% for month Dow – 10221 to 8,663 Down 15.2% for the year NASDAQ – 1950 to 1314. Down 32.5% for the year S&P500 – 1148 to 916. Down 20.2% for the year For August. Visiblilty looks bleak. Expect a bottom. It appears the bottom was July 24, but not many were in. For September, Think markets seem to continue. Expect 9/11 relief rally. Jack