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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (2043)	8/2/2002 7:23:10 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

>> overbearing negative perspective Robert, Most companies have reported their Q already, and the GDP report is also released, as well as the employment stats. These are the basic materials for the current Q. None of the data mandates a rousing rally in the immediate time. My conclusion is the negative perspective will continue for at least two more months and then will be re-evaluated in light of new data. My guess is that Q3 data will be lousy also. So patience is very much in order. Have a good weekend. Sarmad

To: robert b furman who wrote (2043)	8/2/2002 9:09:24 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

FWIW: In a research note out Friday, Morgan Stanley analyst Mark Edelstone said July likely will be the first time in 16 months that the global semiconductor industry posts positive year-over-year revenue growth. But that's not much comfort in the current market. Citing expectations of weaker-than-expected GDP next year, Edelstone throttled down estimates for revenue growth. He cut his outlook to 15% to 20% growth in 2003 for the chip industry, from earlier projections of a sales increase of 20% to 25%. He also raised the specter that chip sales could finish the current year in the red: "If end demand (particularly for PCs) doesn't improve or consumer spending begins to waver, we believe that our 2002 growth forecast for 0% to 5% will prove to be too high, and there could be additional risk to our new 2003 estimate." Worse, Edelstone predicted more companies are on track to miss earnings estimates, given that earlier predictions or a more robust recovery now look unrealistic. "We believe that the back-end loaded nature of the third quarter has combined with weaker economic data points to promote a further increase in earnings risk," he wrote. thestreet.com