<<<Current thinking from here:
It really is going to be like the '73-'74 market. We're going to invade Iraq. That's a given. The reaction from other countries in the Middle East will be to cut oil production (oil is trending nicely higher here, just went above $25). We all know stocks are still too high based on historic valuations. So there's a war in the Middle East, oil prices spike, and the economy really goes over the side.
Bush will say this is why we need the big oil pipeline, that he was right all along, and Congress will have little choice but to approve it. This weekend, I will be looking at the oil drillers. Not SLB, but the more leveraged guys. WMB has a lot of debt, and this is just the thing that could keep them from filing BK. Take a look at the volume in HAL. I don't know the best way to play it, I'm just pretty convinced about how this segment goes.
Thoughts?>>>
Yes, lots of thoughts here(hehe)
In regard to oils or gold, the concept of easy riches is very appealing, from the days of 1849'ers onward
Dig in a stream and pan some gold. Punch a hole in the ground and up comes the oil.
Much more had been invested in the efforts than has been recovered.
Thus one must find the rare stock that returns some value to shareholders and I have not followed the oils.
Might check into the holdings of Sam Nunn, Dell Director, who owns some TX, I believe.
See how hes doing. .
Regarding Iraq, you may be interested in a book by Frederick Forsyth, "The Fist of God" (Allah, I suppose)
Regarding the Recovery: We have heard the recovery may start at the end of 2001, at the 2nd quarter of 2002, at the end of 2002, and now not until 2003 or 2004. Being unable to correctly forcast the next week or the next
month, analysts are now trying to forcast 20 years in advance which is much safer since they willl be gone by then<G>
Regarding overvaluation: Thats the convincer for me (the high P/E's) that we go down rather than up.The US avearges one war each 5 years, which causes great distress to financial planning.
Regarding diversification: One could diversify (play it safe ) buy 10 stocks of which two may go down 80% and two go up 15%.. It make the brokers very happy ( buy or sell) but still a loser UNLESS we get the elusive recovery and even then no chance of a big winner.
Can be very useful for those with lots of money and a long term outlook, neither of which I have.
Regarding the present market:
With no new money coming into equities ( and I dismiss all that "sidelined money"as BS since over 7 Trillion has vanished) this is a battle between the very big and the newer middle class- fighting over whats left.
The Government is fighting to keep its promises to average citizens. SS, Medicare, pension guarantees,
bank deposit guarantees, veterans pensions, .national defense, educational loans,etc.
The only way that most of us can retire with a $1mm is to have monstrous inflation ( which is probably on its way but I would not know when.) Cars in the 1960's were maybe $2500, today $25,000.
In 20 years, maybe $250,000. But whos to know? Our Government and Mr G, have done their best to put some stability into the market/economy, but Mr G. is fully aware that markets have a life of their own and properly says its not his job to mess with equities or maintain the markets. It is more to stabilize the economy and its obvious there is a great disconnect of stock prices and our economy.
I hope nobody gets discouraged over what I say here, it just takes perseverance to find values in the market today- to sort out what works best for each individual. Shorts, spreads, whatever works.
And try to enjoy this great adventure while preserving assets until the time is right and you can "see" a winner.
Nobody here is better at that than Donnie. One time he said buy COOL (or something) so I bgt 3 calls for $600 each, sold them next day for $5000 each. Now when he says "Pdli", or "Dyn", and I jump.
I may not be able to live like that, but dang, its sure fun.<g> Anybody that owns a dog has his head together.
Donnie has more than one. (Dawgs, that is)
Sig.. (Frogger Sig, but I miss the logs now and then and fall in the river)
Sorry - I dont know much about oils. I usual buy Pennsoil.
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