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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chris714 who wrote (48899)	8/3/2002 8:14:38 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

chris, I am going to take a shot at your portfolio during deflation. Your GNMA's are guaranteed by the government at par and you could take a look at the par value of the fund to give you an idea of the value. Freddie and Fannie stock will be a good indicator of your GNMA's losing value in the future if they are trading at a premium. IMO, your gold and silver will do fine in a deflationary environment. The fellows that run the TGG fund do great work and I expect them to adjust to conditions as they occur. They did a great job adjusting to the Russian default, Mexican default, Argentina default, etc. Australia is just Australia and is not dependent on the US, as you know I an biased. <g> The Index shorts will be wonderful. I have owned NAT for a while and recently bought VLCCF. Am getting ready to buy some more of both of these if they ever look like they have bottomed out on this down draft. Oil is going to have to move and the Middle East is not going to quit shipping. Joan

To: chris714 who wrote (48899)	8/4/2002 1:42:30 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

If deflation is where we're heading, government bonds should be the best asset class to own...I like European because I think the Euro will outperform the Dollar over the next 12-18 months. Therefore I prefer BEGBX to TGG, because it's a purer play on European government paper. I do own a bit of FAX, though, so I'm not TOTALLY sold on the EURO vs the YEN and the Aussie dollar. FAX currently trades at a larger discount to NAV than does TGG, for what that's worth...