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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kip518 who wrote (16872)8/3/2002 7:51:20 PM
From: Yogizuna  Respond to of 36161
 
Very interesting. I think the market has so more rally potential left in it as long as the Dow can hold it's previous lows.... In that case, it should start to rally again next week, perhaps as early as Turn around Tuesday, and then I will be looking for somewhere around 9200/9400 on the Dow before the bears take charge again.... This stance is a bit unusual for me, because everyone likes to call me "Yogi" because I love being bearish on the market. <g>



To: Kip518 who wrote (16872)8/3/2002 11:48:32 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 36161
 
extreme low pressure zone now in stocks, suckers bought it

next up is banking sector derivative risk
gonna be shocking, not just in USA, but worldwide

the declining USdollar has silently delivered a huge shock to the entire world banking system
the world economy is geared toward a high dollar value
its decline shocks all continents simultaneously

and most investors are TOTALLY OBLIVIOUS to this risk

this autumn, the USdollar decline enters stage#2 downhill
I believe (among other factors) that the US banking sector is factoring in the rate risk from foreign TBond selling

in stage#1, foreigns merely staged a buying strike for stocks and bonds
I know they did NOT buy TBonds, because on down stock days, coupled by up bond days, the dollar was trendless
some days the dollar was down as bonds were up
the bond action has been a parochial US-only show lately

not so in stage#2
to those who expect the USdollar decline has ended, I say
"YOU AINT SEEN NOTHING YET"
have you seen the trend in federal and trade deficits?
revisions to GDP last week rendered trade gap to over 5%
that has historically ushered in a 25% currency devaluation

the vicious cycle will soon turn in an ugly way
/ jim