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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Win Smith who wrote (35848)8/3/2002 7:20:19 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
My policy, to repeat, is containment. A policy the US has a great deal of experience with. A policy that historically has lead to some quite successful conclusions.

A policy that has already completely failed in Iraq, according to every single expert -- Pollack, Marr, you name them. Saddam's revenue has just quadrupled. Powell's smart sanctions campaign went nowhere. Repeating "containment, containment" in the face of these facts is just burying your head in the sand. Do you think the Bush administration is so stupid that they don't realize it's dangerous to render Saddam desperate? Do you think they would choose this course if containment were an available option?

To make matters worse, it now appears that Jordan's King Abdullah has been playing both sides against the middle:
_________________________________________________________

Abdullah 'working closely' with Saddam
By DOUGLAS DAVIS

LONDON The Bush administration has acquired evidence that Jordan's King Abdullah II, once a cornerstone of US policy against Iraq, is in fact working closely with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, according to senior political sources here.
The sources declined to indicate the precise nature of the evidence, but they say it is damning and irrefutable.

Among the most sensational charges, they said, is that Abdullah has been passing sensitive American intelligence material to Saddam and that he has received substantial "gifts" from Baghdad.

The sources allege that Abdullah is also "very handsomely rewarded" by Saddam for facilitating the passage of illicit, Iraqi-bound cargoes that arrive in Akaba, and for purchases ostensibly for Jordan, but in fact for Iraq that are made by a select group of Jordanian businessmen.

In addition to Abdullah's intense relationship with Saddam, the sources said he also has a long-standing friendship with Saddam's sons, Uday and Qusai, with whom he spent most of his vacations during the 1990s before becoming king.

"But the friendship appears to be one-sided," said the sources. "Uday recently gave Abdullah a gift three Porsches but what he did not tell Abdullah was that the cars had been stolen. All three had been looted from Kuwait. It was a sign of Uday's contempt for Abdullah."

A leading businessman who acts as a courier between Abdullah and Saddam learned of the "gift" and bought Abdullah a brand-new, top-of-the-range Mercedes, urging him to dispose of the stolen Porsches. Abdullah accepted the Mercedes, said the sources, but continues to drive the Porsches.

The sources say that Abdullah insists on handling relations with Iraq personally, on one occasion ordering a top official to leave the room while he met with an intermediary to discuss his relations with Iraq.

According to the sources, Saddam has a fund of some $6 billion a year in cash acquired from the sale of oil, either through the UN oil-for-food program or on the black market which he uses to acquire weapons and for "gifts" and outright bribes to political figures throughout the region, "particularly in Saudi Arabia."

"It is no wonder," said one source, "that politicians throughout the Middle East are supporting Saddam."

The revelations of Abdullah's alleged duplicity are likely to seriously complicate his visit to Washington, where he was meeting with top administration officials, including President George W. Bush, yesterday.

They are also likely to upset the Pentagon's military planners, who had been relying on Jordan to play a pivotal role in the mooted US-led military operation to topple Saddam. Plans for Jordan's involvement are now expected to be radically reassessed.

Leaked Pentagon documents, which indicate the high level of trust the US once placed in Abdullah, suggested Jordan had been considered as a "jumping-off" point for an attack on western Iraq that would have involved up to 250,000 US troops, as well as forces from Britain and other participating US allies.

Jordanian officials denied the report, and Abdullah has been cautioning against an attempt to mount a military operation against Baghdad, insisting that a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict must take precedence.

Another sign of Abdullah's affiliation with Baghdad became evident this week when, in an unprecedented display of family disunity, he condemned his uncle, Prince Hassan, for publicly siding with the Iraqi opposition in exile.

Hassan, who was dumped by the late King Hussein as his successor just days before his death, is revered by many Iraqis as the most senior member of the Hashemite royal family.

He caused a sensation when he made a personal appearance at a major conference, held here last month, of all the anti-Saddam groups that was convened by the US-backed Iraqi National Congress. INC leaders have been invited to meet with senior officials in the US administration in Washington next week.
In an interview with The Times of London this week, Abdullah represented his uncle as a dysfunctional political neophyte, when he declared that "Prince Hassan blundered into something that he did not realize he was getting into and we're all picking up the pieces."

He also told the paper that when he meets Bush he will demand full backing for Secretary of State Colin Powell against the Pentagon officials who are "fixated on Iraq," and he warned that US action against Iraq would open a "Pandora's box" in the Middle East.

During visits to Paris, London, and Washington this week, Abdullah has strenuously sought to link the Palestinian and Iraqi issues, repeating the mantra with increasing stridency that Washington must first resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict before it contemplates action against Saddam.

On Sunday, he told CNN that it is "somewhat ludicrous" for the US to try to consider actions against Saddam without positive movement on the Israeli-Palestinian track.

And just hours before his meeting with Bush yesterday, he told The Washington Post that international leaders are deeply worried about US plans for war against Iraq, adding that it would be a "tremendous mistake" to ignore warnings from its allies.

"Everybody is saying this is a bad idea," Abdullah said. "If it seems America says we want to hit Baghdad, that's not what Jordanians think, or the British, the French, the Russians, the Chinese, and everybody else."

He added that some US allies might have been reluctant to speak out because they believed the prospect of war was far in the distance: "All of the sudden this thing is moving to the horizon much closer than we believed."

In what is regarded as a slap at Abdullah, US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith offered a diametrically opposed analysis, arguing that the toppling Saddam will create the opportunity for a diplomatic breakthrough.

He told the London-based Financial Times that "Iraq is purposefully and systematically aggravating Palestinian-Israeli relations" and said that the intensity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict should not deter the US from seeking regime change in Iraq.

"[Saddam] may think that the more he can encourage terrorist bombings against the Israelis, the more the world is diverted from the issue of his tyranny, his weapons of mass destruction programs, his terrorist activities, and on to another agenda," Feith said.

A senior INC leader, Dr. Ahmad Chalabi, said Abdullah was acting as "Saddam's lawyer in America... He defends Saddam and uses every opportunity to warn off any American attempt to help the Iraqi people liberate themselves."
jpost.com



To: Win Smith who wrote (35848)8/3/2002 7:29:20 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
Win, do you think the US can contain this?

Whitehall dossier says Saddam plans biological weapons for Palestinians
by michael evans, defence editor


SADDAM HUSSEIN is suspected of planning to arm a Palestinian terrorist group with biological weapons to attack either American or Israeli targets.
A Whitehall dossier containing a detailed assessment of Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction programme, which has been circulated to the Prime Minister and other senior Cabinet ministers, is understood to focus on Iraq’s biological weapons capability.

Details of the dossier came to light as the United Nations rejected a new offer from the Iraqi leader. Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary-General, said that an Iraqi letter calling for a further round of technical talks with Hans Blix, the head weapons inspector, set conditions “at variance” with the demands of the United Nations Security Council.

Using mobile laboratories for their research, the team of scientists working for Saddam are believed to be developing a range of biological agents that can be “delivered” by an aerosol system.

The latest assessment in Washington and London is that Saddam’s plan is to produce a basic weapon that can be used by a terrorist group to attack the Iraqi leader’s enemies, the United States and Israel. In the same way that Iran has funded and trained terrorist groups to carry out attacks from Lebanon against Israel, Saddam, according to the assessment, could be banking on recruiting a Palestinian terrorist group to act on his behalf.

Analysis of US satellite imagery over the past four years has provided sufficient evidence to show what Saddam has been doing since the expulsion of the United Nations weapons inspectors in December 1998. While the Iraqi leader has pursued all elements of his weapons of mass destruction programme, he has made greatest progress in trying to “weaponise” his biological systems, using the mobile research laboratories to try to deceive America’s spy satellites.

The Iraqi leader knows from experience that it is far more difficult to hide work on nuclear weapons because of the substantial infrastructure required. Saddam’s attempts to develop long-range ballistic missiles, capable of reaching America, have also been carefully monitored from space and there is no sign that he has succeeded beyond trying to modify old Russian Scud missiles.

In assessing the threat posed by Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction programme, the emphasis has, therefore, been on his biological warfare projects, which pose as great a threat as nuclear devices and can be developed relatively easily away from the sensors of America’s spy satellites.

The Palestinian connection is now at the heart of intelligence thinking. Despite the belief in some quarters in America that a senior officer in Saddam’s intelligence service met an al-Qaeda terrorist in Prague last year, before September 11, this is given no credence by the CIA, the FBI or by British Intelligence.

Saddam has funded Palestinian extremist groups for many years, and the assessment now is that, with the Middle East in turmoil, the Iraqi leader may see that the best way of taking revenge against the US and Israel is by using a Palestinian organisation as his proxy terrorists.


timesonline.co.uk