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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: prosperous who wrote (22082)8/4/2002 5:46:53 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Respond to of 74559
 
Hemant,

Thanks for your interesting commentary.

Re: My suspicion is that we still are at least 1.5-2 years away from the point where one would feel comfortable about investing in the market,

You'll be early.....

Re: Volatility -

The current volatlity in U.S. equity markets has little to do with the individual investor. The hedge funds, broker/dealers and the PPT are in control of the "action" in the equity markets now. There is no hope that volatility will subside until the game is re-organized by some external force. And the most likely one, Congress, is both owned by the perps of the "volatility" schemes, as well as being "on vacation".

-Ray



To: prosperous who wrote (22082)8/5/2002 2:00:37 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi Hemant, I could not find anything to disagree with you (not that I was looking to disagree with you), and so figured I will add one bit of fortune telling:

<<... history may be a good teacher if people are willing to look ... suspicion is that we still are at least 1.5-2 years away from the point where one would feel comfortable about investing in the market ... What do you think?>>

I would agree if and only if the housing bubble goes kaboom tomorrow, or a few days later, otherwise the stock market may only recover 2-3 years after the collapse of the more consequential housing market.

Chugs, Jay



To: prosperous who wrote (22082)8/5/2002 8:38:29 AM
From: Joe Copia  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
There is one factor Mr. Graham's model could not foresee:

The precarious nature of derivative financing. If this "house of cards" falls, 1927-1933 could look like the roaring 20's.

Some intense reading:

Message 17677454