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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rsie who wrote (1929)	8/4/2002 8:35:55 PM
From: Alan Bell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

The valuation of the market is still above fair market value based on PEs. In the past, bears turn to bulls when below fair value. If I heard correctly, Bob said no cyclical bull has started with a PE above 12.5. If that happens here, we still have a bunch lower to go. And if as some people say, the extent of overrun on the down side is similar to the extent of the previous upside excess, we have a lot further to go down. P.S Does the message number of your message provide an omen?

To: rsie who wrote (1929)	8/4/2002 10:42:39 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 10065

Hi richard. I'm thinking that the market has entered a long (~16 to 18 year) period of bearish action. The final bottom will be a long time from now. Since my only experience with a long-term bearish market is the period from 1966 to 1982, my tendency is to think of the current market patterns in those terms. Since it was 8 years before the 74 bottom, I wouldn't be surprised if we're earlier in the cycle than you're thinking. As an aside, I believe that the "inflation adjusted bottom" of the bear was probably in '82. Best wishes, I2