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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lone Ranger who wrote (1931)	8/4/2002 11:25:04 PM
From: Alan Bell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

The market is going to do what the market will do. I feel the "financial" danger of buying in at a false bottom is greater than the danger of not getting in. And so I stay very cautious. This might stop at declines like '73 but it also could be like '29 and then we still have a ways to go. If one misses this cyclical bottom, there will probably be another in about 3 years. But if one gets in too early and we drop another 50%, well ... So my current plan is to wait until valuations are more compelling. I almost wonder if a good strategy would be to stay in bonds for ten or so years until another secular bull reemerges. If one were to take a buy and hold approach after picking a cyclical bottom, then to the first order, it really doesn't matter which cyclical bottom to pick. Of course, if one were to accurately pick each bottom and top, one would do much better. And it is more fun! But I know I can't do that (yet.<g>)