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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CYBERKEN who wrote (14059)	8/5/2002 5:27:24 AM
From: macavity	Respond to of 19219

I call 'em as I see 'em. To me timing IS everything. Though not perfect I know enough about history to know that after a bubble you have to be exceedingly disciplined about going long. Now is the time for (real) stock analysts. There was no need before, you could buy anything - everything was a winner in 1999. Fundamental analysis is going to be at a premium now on in. Sector Analysis and rotation skills are going to be the skills of the position Trader. We just had an 18 year bull run (1982-2000) that followed a multi-year bear/sideways market (1969-1982). Yes you are right the bear market will end, but if you are going to blindly buy The Market ($SPX), I believe you are going to need to trade it. The $SPX 1981 high was about 141 the $SPX 2000 high was 1552. A tenfold increase in 18 years! When the next bull comes we will see similar returns, I am with you on that. I just do not believe that you should commit long-term funds to The Market in general right now. The $SPX will be going sideways for a few years to come. Someone said, " Treat your longs as Trades, and your shorts as Investments." . I believe that even at $SPX=775 this advice will still hold for the next 3 years at least. I am long a small amount of QQQ at the moment. I am actually bullish for the next 1-3 mth time scale, though my timing could have been better - as always. Long QQQ and watching History as it is written! -macavity