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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Scott who wrote (38648)	8/5/2002 7:15:04 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Robert, if you'd have invested $1000 at the bottom of the crash in 1932, you'd have made about 300% in the first 2-years had you bought the bottom, shorted the top, and bought the next bottom. That would be about 38-years sooner than your methodology. You've been bullish since January, and I'd hate to see what your portfolios will look like in a year when this drop has halved the Dow and SPX. Stocks are not a religion, and buy and hold is not the answer to this bear.

To: Robert Scott who wrote (38648)	8/5/2002 7:59:22 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Only if you bought the index and not the stocks in the index. That arguement remains one of the greatest falacies of Wall Street as most of the companies back then went out of business so in reality, you would have lost everything. Thanks to the magic of index rebalancing, the indexes did OK and went on to make future gains but most of the stocks that a "Normal investor" would have been able to buy would have torn his head off leaving him in the soup line. Good Luck, Lee

To: Robert Scott who wrote (38648)	8/5/2002 9:51:49 AM
From: Slava Chechik	Respond to of 52237

Robert, letter just shows a sentiment of quite a few people. It could be indicative of the bottom. It seems like majority of people who do not trade think that way. Majority is often wrong in the stock market. But they could be wrong for a long time. Example that you have made is not very good. It assumes that person was healthy enough to live thru those 40 years (average life expectancy was about 55), was lucky enough not be killed in World War II, Korean war, had enough money to live thru Great Depression and invest some money every year. But trading as Don Sew, or as other good traders do, improving yourself, keeping losses under control will make more sense. And using retirement accounts for it is very advantageous. Regards, Slava