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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (16903)	8/5/2002 3:50:10 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

I smell upcoming curveball event: divergence of HUI and XAU we have a technical inconsistency now showing with the 200MA breakdown in XAU, but 200MA support in HUI the heavy presence of hedged miners in XAU will next become extremely evident imho, causing confusion among gold miner investors the brokerage houses who dont like gold will use it to dismiss the gold rally, invalidate it, and attempt to pull gold investors off the newly established trend the next run for gold could be from a base of #295 to a much higher level my guess is over #350, and perhaps even higher as this occurs, if this occurs, when this occurs, we will see some extreme damage done to Barrick, Placer, and even AngloGold these are large-scale hedgers I actually expect a possible hedgebook blowup for Barrick, and a threat of bankruptcy if and when this occurs, the XAU index will slow its growth or remain flat WHILE THE HUI INDEX CONTINUES UPWARD IN A SHARP ASCENT gonna be interesting, to say the least one line used by TanRange CEO Sinclair has stuck with me "this gold rally has been disbelieved by both its bulls and bears" I expect confusion to worsen comments welcome but with HUI and XAU showing different stories now, this will unfold with some internal conflict for a while longer / jim

To: Paul Shread who wrote (16903)	8/5/2002 11:23:07 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

Paul, fwiw the XAU showed signs of violating the wave 1 issue back in early July, and did so in earnest about July 22. This verified that the XAU was never in an impulse up, it was a corrective. Now imho the XAU could be in an impulse down, and about halfway thru the 4th corrective of the current major down, meaning the 5th down is yet to come. It this count continues, which we won't know until it does, the bottom would be 45ish. The key imo is not necessarily the bottom on this leg down, but the peak on the next leg up. Folks have been touting the HUI, but imo the XAU has been the better leading indicator, by far. Touting the HUI (I agree with Sharp's implications) because it is more hedged, is a little wishful thinking. If you think I'm full of beans, so is augieboo (I guess): investorshub.com Now if I only would have counted the SOXX as good as I did the XAU, everything would be fine for me. I missed it by one wave so it seems. No one that I know of has read everything correct here. My current opinion is still for a corrective rally in tech and the general markets. Have to be correct sooner or later, so I'll keep on thinking it. When it happens I'll exit my current longs. After that, sometime next year, I think a big down wave hits the general markets, and it will be meaner than this one by far. If my thinking is correct just imagine. If this one was bad, the next one will have some folks jumping out of windows. I mentioned sometime ago that everyone seems to be on a faster timescale than this market. Still seems to be the case. And this imho means the double dip comes, just not as soon as everyone expects, and maybe a whole lot more severe. In the meantime, back to fishing here in AK.