Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (3941)	8/5/2002 3:41:13 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

hey Kindleberger: efficient markets assume reliable info /jw

To: stockman_scott who wrote (3941)	8/5/2002 4:09:43 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 89467

double dips, recession, bear markets, and war been reading many economic analyses with references to post-WW2 history it seems that only 1991 offered up a single dip recession the norm is double dip, with majority of cases in 1970's we had a triple dip recession which is what I expect early in this decade something like 2001, then 2003, and again 2005 in 1970's we took severe shocks from OPEC after a long long strong bull market in the 1960's after rebuilding in the 1950's following WW2 but my eye is on history from 1930's because that is the era offering greatest similarity now in 1914 the USA felt confident about establishing a new institution, called the Federal Reserve it funded massive expansion in automobiles, and margin debt in stocks after seeing what a monster it built, the Fed cut off the credit supply, and kept it tight for 2-3 years it was an abomination to the freemarket the Federal Reserve shouldve been disbanded among FDR's reforms in 2000 we saw another popped bubble, after a decade of credit abuse once again, with numerous asset bubbles, and expansion in telecom using wireless and fiberoptic now, despite ample continued Fed printing press activity with crisp slick new metal-threaded $100 and $20 and $10 and $5 bills the gradual deterioration of the US economy continues just like 1931,32 in the long drawn out 1930's, the European continent deserved the political focus Germany was in desperate shape, electing National Socialists we call them Nazis the economic endless recession finally ended with WW2 now we face another elongated economic recession Bushy talks tough with war against terrorism but we dont know very much about their identities one of the most elusive stories about Islamic Fundy Terrorists is ... WE CANNOT EVEN SPELL THEIR NAMES TO ENTER INTO DATABASES they dont all look alike but their names all seem impossible to pronounce or spell I expect this decade to see a widening war Iraq may have links to AlQaeda, maybe not Iraq may have mass destruction weapons, maybe not it almost doesnt matter sooner or later, a war will be seen by our leaders as a necessary evil in order to deal with our caustic atttitudes toward our country, our economy, our leaders, our institutions, our malaise, our domestic distrust disorder I expect war in the next couple years gonna be a truly ugly decade not just ugly, but fugly / jim