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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Sullivan who wrote (36015)	8/5/2002 5:48:39 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Brian Sullivan; Re: "So I wouldn't put took much stock in Goldman Sachs wishlist [on US interest rates]." By late 2001, the US discount rate was at 1.25%, the lowest since 1948: research.stlouisfed.org The Federal Funds rate in January 2002 got to 1.73% (it's back up to 1.75% as of June), the lowest it's been since July 1961: research.stlouisfed.org 1-year treasury notes are now at 2.20%, the lowest they've been (other than November 2001 at 2.18%) since 1958: research.stlouisfed.org 5-year treasury note interest rates have been 4.00% or above since November 1963 (other than right after the WTC when they got as low as 3.91%, according to this data). They're now at only 4.19%, only a fraction of a percent to go for a 40-year record: research.stlouisfed.org 30-year conventional mortgage rates are now at 6.65%. This is the lowest back to the beginning of the series in 1971, other than right after the WTC: research.stlouisfed.org My original comment was: "As far as what's going on in the US economy, it should be noted that the Fed has now dropped interest rates to a 40-year low: #reply-17835503 The significance of this is that it is not possible to properly chart the secular trends in the economy, interest rates, or the stock market, with charts or historical analogies that only go back 40 years. For almost all investors, what is going on is completely new territory. It will be exciting to watch." #reply-17835522 I stand by it. Interest rates, particularly the ones directly influenced by the Fed, are at a 40-year low. -- Carl P.S. More interest rate series from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Board: research.stlouisfed.org