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Technology Stocks : Broadcom (BRCM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (6261)	8/6/2002 4:24:04 PM
From: Taro	Respond to of 6531

I´d bet my neck on BRCM hitting 6-9 in Q4 this year. I do agree, however, that a NASDAQ level well below 1100 - maybe approaching the 700 predicted by Trash - seems to be a more likely companion to that scenario. Taro

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (6261)	8/6/2002 9:12:17 PM
From: uu	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 6531

With regard to BRCM... I think by September time frame it will be trading in single digits (or very much close to it)... simply based on the following set of facts: – BRCM presently trades at nearly 5.7 times sales, almost DOUBLE the industry average of 2.88 and more than FOUR TIMES the S&P 500 average of 1.22. – BRCM revenues have declined 23.1% Q1 to Q1 over last year. Although revenues increased Q to Q the current quarter this year, Y-T-D revenues for the six months ending June 30th have declined this year over last. – BRCM no longer has pricing power as gross margins have been declining steadily and sharply from 62.9% in 1999, to 58.2% in 2000, to 53.2% in 2001, to 44.1% for the first six months of this year. – BRCM has now posted EIGHT consecutive quarterly losses totaling $3,819,888,000. Continued losses are expected well into the foreseeable future. – The QUARTERLY loss for BRCM in Q2 was greater than its highest ever ANNUAL profit, and the QUARTETLY loss for BRCM in Q1 was nearly DOUBLE its highest ever ANNUAL profit – BRCM lost more in 2001 than all of its combined SALES for 2001, 2000, 1999, and 1997. BRCM losses in the first six months of this year alone already exceeds its combined sales for 1997 and 1998. – 63.7% of BRCM assets are nothing more than goodwill. If goodwill is subtracted, BRCM book value per share declines from $12.41 per share to 3.27 per share. BRCM is utilizing the more "subjective" accounting for goodwill by adopting FAS No. 142. And lets not forget if they end up being forced to expense all their outstanding stock options, the earnings reports for the past and future foreacsts will need to be cut by 1500%! Of course I have also proven to be wrong many many times in the past! Regards,