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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (16909)	8/10/2002 11:19:31 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

so far the Treasury buying has been largely by Americans each time TBonds rally, I watch the USdollar and it is not rising so the Trez game is largely a local theme I believe the move to Treasurys will soon peter out we have historical low sub-2% yield on 2-yr TNote this makes the point on shorterm Trez yields being near zero on real terms (subtract CPI from yield and get zero) this has historically set the stage for a decade run in gold my understanding is that foreigners went on a buying strike this spring and summer with US stocks and bonds we felt it with stocks but Americans did the bond buying in droves Europeans probably retreated into their own EuroBonds the next downleg with the dollar will reveal the bond weakness we have already priced in the recession on TBond yield even though we simultaneously deny its possibility! Europeans warned in early July that unless the US economy showed signs of clear recovery, unless the US stock market showed signs of clear recovery... EUROPEANS WILL BAIL OUT US FINANCIAL ASSETS IN THE AUTUMN by the way, foreigners own 44-45% of USTBonds over $2.5T of the $6.0T foreigners can trade TBonds for EuroBonds that is the Europeans answer for Asians, unsure since JapBonds pay 0% Asians can trade TBonds for Asian stocks AND THEY ALL CAN TRADE TBONDS FOR GOLD / jim