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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (10569)	8/5/2002 8:51:52 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

> If you look at SEMI bookings [assume AMAT bookings are proportional], end of '98 is also less than today Good point, but if you look the AMAT price vs. the level of bookings (I imagine this roughly correlates to the PSR) then we are just getting back to the historical norms. It looks even worse if you look at the chart Brian pointed out. In that one you can see that AMAT price rose at a much faster rate than the billings or its own Q2Q backlog change. What this means to me is that first of AMAT is not cheap even by its own measure, and that things may improve in the industry while the stocks continue to fall or at least go nowhere. On a somewhat related note, my personal observation has been that the technology spending is picking up. There is a sluggish increase in demand for IT workers. And that infrastructure of all sorts is falling apart so the companies have to loosen their purse string. It does not take a genius to see the drop in Nasdaq is comparable to that of 1929. The only difference is that it took a slower-steady dive than a sudden one day move back then. So as soon as the monthly MA crosses over the quarterly MA, I think it is time to buy. But I would rather own indexes at this time than most stocks. Even better, there are some interesting structured derivatives trading on AmEx. But if I were to buy stocks, I would start with telecom and infrastructure stocks, but that is just me. BTW, I have been out of the market since what seems like forever. I do not anticipate to be active in the market they way I was any time soon. This is not a call on the market, but I am busy actually building a business and it takes every minute of my time. As I am writing this, I am packing to move back to Canada. wish all of you luck in the market, Sun Tzu