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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (42527)	8/5/2002 11:03:15 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

Here is some interesting data on cycles in the SOX. Note that the SOX is a relatively new index, and past performance may not be indicative of future performance. Bull cycle Start: 10/94 Low 117.44 End: 9/95 High 303.85 Gain: 158.73% Duration: 11 months Bear cycle Start: 9/95 High 303.85 End: 7/96 Low 138.98 Loss: 54.26% Duration: 10 months Bull cycle Start: 7/96 Low 138.98 End: 8/97 High 405.48 Gain: 191.75% Duration: 13 months Bear cycle Start: 8/97 High 405.48 End: 10/98 Low 182.59 Loss: 54.97% Duration: 14 months Bull cycle Start: 10/98 Low 182.59 End: 3/00 High 1362.10 Gain: 645.99% Duration: 17 months Bear cycle Start: 3/00 High 1362.10 End? 8//02 Low 282.75 Loss: 79.24% Duration: 17 months Note that in each of the last two cycles, the duration of the up cycle was about equal to the duration of the down cycle. Let's hope that history plays out again as we are now in the 17th month of this down cycle and the last up cycle lasted 17 months. A note of caution: even if the SOX bottoms this month or next, the carnage could stop at a lower price. The SOX has fallen far more in this down cycle than in any previous down cycle, but it also went up a lot more in the previous bull cycle than in any other.