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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (98334)	8/6/2002 4:57:07 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99280

Did they invent a reason to invest? You have to add why they invested. My studies re demographics show that, on the average, turning 40 is a reason to invest in the broad Market. The Nasdaq may have a lower average investor age. A few simple examples: The biggest spurt in the immigration adjusted birth rate was from 1945 to 1947. 40 yrs later, there was a huge spurt in the stock market. The low in the immigration adjusted birth rate was centered around 1934. There was a major Market low in 1974. The final plateau that capped the rise in the birth rate from its Depression lows was from 1957 to 1961. A major Market peak occurred about 40yrs later. Now, re the Nasdaq, the picture is not as clear, and it's difficult to find the comparable index from the earlier comparable period (early to mid 60s) and see how it behaved relative to the broad Market. Re Info Tech, I'm not saying anything about the industry's business prospects, I'm saying that PE multiples may continue to compress for 10-15 yrs from their early 2000 stratospheric levels.